Saturday, January 5, 2019

Twitter Questions

Just a brief reminder that the new site (angrystaffer.com) should be fully live early next week, hoping for Monday! Had some good questions as always, so let's get right to it:

Thursday, January 3, 2019

Let The Games Begin

If you aren't excited about today, you should be; we just turned a vitally-important corner in American politics. For the first time in two years -- and perhaps for the first time in his entire life --Donald Trump will be held accountable.

Nancy Pelosi absolutely nailed it in her speech this afternoon: "Two months ago, the American people spoke and demanded a new dawn. They called upon the beauty of our Constitution and system of checks and balances that protects our democracy, remembering that the legislative branch is coequal to the presidency and judiciary."

In two sentences, Pelosi artfully articulated the reality that is about to come crashing down upon Trump and his administration. For two years, Trump has been largely unchallenged; the GOP majority has been happy to abdicate their responsibility and let him run roughshod over societal norms, common decency, and political decorum. That changes today. For two years, it has been abundantly clear he only wanted to "Drain the Swamp" because he was bringing his own swamp-monsters and they needed new homes. This administration has been plagued with scandals that would have sunk most other presidencies, only to have the GOP provide cover and refuse to investigate them. That changes today. For two years, Trump, his cabinet, and his spokespeople have been able to do whatever they want with no risk of being held accountable, or called to testify in front of the American public. That changes today.

This is a great day for America, but it also marks the beginning of what I would expect to be a pretty tumultuous period in American politics. We have a malignant narcissist in the White House who is about to learn for the first time in his life that it's not all about him. One of my followers put it beautifully this morning, so I'm going to borrow a quote from them: "These past two years have been Trump's "Best Case" scenario. Crazy." Unfortunately, they're 100% correct. The batshit craziness we've seen so far probably pales in comparison to what's coming. All the tantrums he's thrown, mean tweets he's sent, people he's insulted? That's been while his party was in absolute power. He could do whatever he wanted; he just sucked at it, so he didn't really manage to do much of anything. Now he's going to have Pelosi smacking his tiny hands with the gavel (that he so kindly laid in her lap) every time he does something out of line.

If you missed Pelosi's interview with TODAY, you should check it out. She said it was an "open discussion" whether or not a sitting POTUS could be indicted. That's a pretty big hint from a long-time member of the Gang of Eight. She also said re: impeachment, "We have to wait and see what happens with the Mueller report. We shouldn't be impeaching for a political reason, and we shouldn't avoid impeachment for a political reason. So we'll just have to see how it comes." Well, we already know it's not going to end well for POTUS; who spends months preparing to counter a report that they expect to exonerate them? Trump knows what he did, and he knows Mueller knows. If you thought the last two years were bonkers, you should probably buckle up: it looks like it's going to get even sportier.

 Going to keep this one short and just leave you with a little bit of hope: I firmly believe this is going to be Donald Trump's last year in office. We're about to witness a perfect storm of Justice passing directly over 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. He is not going to be able to handle the barrage of subpoenas, real-time fact-checking and oversight, and the release of Mueller's report at the exact same time. He's not mentally equipped to handle even slight amounts of pushback; this is going to push him over the edge and he will either resign, or be crazy enough that even the GOP can't defend him anymore.

Wednesday, January 2, 2019

Don't Count Romney Out Just Yet

Guys, I get it. I really do. At this point, it’s far easier to assume the furrowed-brows, deep concern, righteous Tweets, and even indignant Senate floor speeches are all just convenient political theater, followed by lining up like good soldiers and doing whatever POTUS wants. Why wouldn’t you feel that way? That’s exactly what we’ve all been shown by Jeff Flake and Susan Collins for the last two years, why would this “I believe 47% of Americans are entitled,” ultra-rich Mormon from Utah with a binder full of a women and a dog on top of his car be any different? I get it. I’m not asking you to become Mitt Romney’s biggest fan, but I am asking you to have a *little* faith; I firmly believe this *is* going to be different. 


Of all the current GOP Senators, Romney is perhaps the best-poised to lead the anti-Trump charge. Even as a junior Senator, his job-security is ironclad; he won 65% of the vote in his Senate election in Utah, compared to the 45.9% Trump carried the state with in 2016. Romney is also 71 years old; he will be 77 at the end of his Senate term, so unless he is the primary option in 2020, he won’t have any Presidential aspirations. It’s also worth pointing out that Romney was more popular in a presidential election than Trump; Romney won 47.2% of the national vote against Obama in 2012. Donald Trump won 46.1% of the national vote against Hillary Clinton. This was before the Trump Russia scandal was public knowledge and prior to Trump’s approval rating hovering somewhere just above the toilet.  


If I’m correct about Romney — and I think I am — he won’t be leading the GOP anywhere they don’t already want to go. I’ve said since the midterms that the GOP is souring on Trump. Almost to a man, his most ardent defenders slander him mercilessly behind closed doors. They don’t want to be known as the party of Trump, and Romney gives them a well-respected, establishment figure to rally behind. Politically, this really doesn’t matter to me, aside from getting rid of Trump faster. I’m done with the GOP, at least for the foreseeable future. The way they sold their souls for some SCOTUS picks and normalized Trump for two years is far too much for me to forgive anytime soon.


I’ve been tagged in the photo of Romney dining with Trump approximately 3,872 times in the last two days, and while I understand it looks bad, I don’t find it as disturbing as some of you. To borrow a common refrain: politics makes strange bedfellows. For better or worse, this is the way DC works. Bitter rivals often become tentative acquaintances — or even allies — after contentious elections. I didn’t vote for Romney in 2012, but I don’t believe he would have been a bad POTUS. If he weren’t running against Obama, he probably would have won. I also think he would have made a pretty good Secretary of State, or at least a far better one than we have thus far seen in the Trump administration. He’s no fan of Russia, going as far as to call them out as our number one geopolitical foe long before many realized the danger they posed. Now, as an incoming Senator, he’s done something no one else (who isn’t already leaving office) has, or will: he let Trump and the public know that he plans to be a check on his power. I think he will surprise many of you. Hell, I hope he will surprise many of you, and not just because I *really* don’t want to eat all the crow I know you’re prepared to serve me if he doesn’t. Do I expect him to come in and immediately start calls for impeachment or resignation? Or to vote against Trump’s agenda because he hates him? Of course not. But I do expect for him to be the most crucial voice for Justice on the GOP side when Mueller’s report is released. I firmly believe the rule of law Republicans will coalesce around Romney and he will be the catalyst for crossing the 20 vote impeachment threshold.


I've said it before, but it's important to say again: political differences shouldn't make any of us enemies. Remember, before I joined Twitter, I was a long-time just-right-of center-Republican who realized the GOP was leaving me behind. I believe most of you consider me an ally; it shouldn't be any different for the never-Trumpers or the first ones to publicly split from Trump and/or the official party line. When every vote matters, it's unwise to shun potential allies. This doesn't mean absolve them of all their sins, but we should all find a way to work together where we can. I honestly look forward to a time when we can again argue over the nuances of individual or party politics, but can we put that aside for now and save our country first?

Tuesday, January 1, 2019

Military Books You Should Read

Most of you who have followed me for awhile know I read. A. LOT. It's not an exaggeration to say that on average, I read between 1-3 books a week. You might ask how in the world I have time for that with work, a family, and my (somewhat extensive) Twitter habit? Easy! Sleep is overrated.

Someone commented on one of my posts this morning and asked which military books I would recommend. There's absolutely no way I could do such a question justice in 280 characters, or even a Twitter thread, so here we are! These are all books I've read and loved, are historically accurate, and more importantly, will teach you something whether you're a military enthusiast or someone who couldn't tell me the differences in an M4 and an AK-47:

Saturday, December 29, 2018

Twitter Questions!

Hey guys, just wanted to take the time to answer a few questions from last night's AMA that needed longer responses. Keep 'em coming. Not like I have anything better to do than work for no pay, anyway. 😉

"Do you see a shifting away from Trump in the GOP? Can they not see the damage he is doing? Do you have insight into what they are saying behind closed doors?"

This is a great question, and a topic that irritates me greatly. Almost without exception, the people who defend Trump in public slander him mercilessly behind closed-doors. It's hypocrisy on a scale that you probably won't find many places outside of DC. They all know he's an idiot. They all know he's bad for the GOP brand (and the country). There really aren't many people in Congress who actually like Trump, outside of Meadows, Gaetz, and a couple of outliers. It's a not-so-well kept secret that McConnell and Murdoch met to discuss their exit strategy. I would have expected to see more public deployment of it already, but I don't think it will be long; the shutdown is not playing well for the GOP with pollsters. It's almost like blaming the Democrats for a shutdown when you control the entire government was a bad idea. Weird, huh?



"How much danger is the Mueller investigation in really?"

Not much. I still think Trump will move on Mueller at some point -- and while Whitaker is around, there is *some* risk -- but it's not going to do any good. Mueller has farmed enough of his case out other jurisdictions (namely SDNY and EDVA) to prevent his work from stopping even if Trump had him fired tomorrow. With Democrat control of the House coming in 5 days, Trump kicked that particular can down the road until he ran out of road. The backlash would be immediate, and astronomical. The work is also entirely too far along to be stopped now. People who have known Mueller for years have said on the record that he would have put a Dead Man's Switch in place the moment Comey was fired. That's been well over a year. FBI agents also aren't going to stop investigating a crime that by now they all know took place even if for some reason Mueller is removed. This is speculation, but I would guess shortly after the new Congress is seated, Mueller starts dropping bombs again. I still maintain Trump will move to fire Mueller as soon as Jr., Jared, or Ivanka are indicted, but it's too late. 

"How has Mattis leaving changed things?"

Mattis' abrupt departure has been met with condemnation, shock, and outrage in the corridors of power. You probably noticed the anti-Mattis crowd try -- and fail miserably -- to establish a narrative that he was somehow bad for this administration. That was *never* going to fly. It shouldn't have worked with Comey, either, but he was such a polarizing figure that it left enough room for both sides of the issue to find a reason to be mad at him. Mattis, on the other hand, is universally respected and widely recognized as *the* preeminent military mind of this generation. His letter moved Congress' "oh shit" meter further to the right than almost anything else could have. Is it enough to act? I suppose we shall soon find out. 

"You haven't talked about North Korea in awhile. What are your current thought's about that hot spot?"

Those of you who have followed me for awhile know North Korea is one of my favorite things to talk about. I've avoided discussing it recently because you can only say "I told you so!!!!" so many times before you sound like a jackass. Kidding... kinda. But no, North Korea is a mess. Mattis leaving makes it even more of a mess, because nobody left who has Trump's ear knows anything about the Korean Peninsula. He wanted to attack North Korea during one of my previous North Korea spam-fests (around the time the three Carrier Strike Groups were in the area of operations) but Kelly, Mattis and McMaster talked him out of it. I know people hate hearing about the adults in the room, but I don't think *anyone* can honestly tell me you feel better about John Bolton and his ridiculous mustache advising Trump on military matters than you did Mattis, Kelly, and McMaster. We've avoided one almost-war with North Korea already during this administration, I don't really look forward to another. I'm not as excited about the lack of recent missile testing as the Trump sycophants on TV; it just tells me they've progressed beyond the stage of needing continuous tests to advance their program. They're essentially 100% on intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests. We can quibble over the reentry vehicles if we want, but the facts are their missiles worked way better than they should have, way faster than they should have, and they've done nothing to slow down research or production. Coupled with the fact that they've probably developed a working hydrogen bomb and are working feverishly on minimization, I'm afraid the North Korea problem is going to come to a head far sooner than any of us wish for it to. Unfortunately, there really are no good options left. If we were going to take their program by force before they developed the capability to hit us at home, that window is firmly closed. To be clear: we don't *know* with 100% certainty that they have the capability to marry a warhead to a missile and land it with precision inside the United States; but we do know they have the capability to at least reach the mainland with a missile, which doesn't leave us a whole lot of low-risk strategic options. Since Trump and Kim "fell in love" (puke) we've also given them a solid 6 months + to continue their work on minimization. The Trump administration's Korean Peninsula policy has given the United States exactly nothing, and given North Korea everything they could have possibly wanted: we no longer buzz their airspace with jets and bombers, we no longer participate in joint exercises with South Korea, and we've given them invaluable time to continue their research. 

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

What Is Going on With Turkey and the Kurds, Anyway?

"If Turkey is Fighting ISIS, and the Kurds are Fighting ISIS, why does Turkey Hate the Kurds?"

To begin to answer this question, it’s important to understand the factions in which we are discussing, and to know that the entire region is a convoluted mess, so this is not meant to be a complete history or an all-encompassing account of the current battlefield dynamics.





Monday, December 24, 2018

How The F$%# Does a Sitting POTUS Ruin Christmas?

Tonight might very be the most disgusted I've ever been by Donald Trump. I had no intention of taking time this evening to write this post -- or any other post for that matter -- until Trump opened his mouth again. I've previously said that for the first time in my children's lives, I don't even allow them to be in the room when the President of the United States is speaking. As sad as that is, this policy has been validated many times over the last two years, but perhaps never as much as tonight.

I tucked my still-believe-in-Santa-age children into bed, made sure everything was perfect for tomorrow morning, poured myself a drink, and opened Twitter to possibly crack a couple jokes before I went to bed myself. I should have skipped Twitter and just went to bed; all it made me want to do is pour myself another drink. For those of you that missed it, children call in to the White House Switchboard and speak to POTUS about the current location of Santa (according to the NORAD Tracker). Seems benign, right? With any other President, yes; Trump, being Trump, managed to f$%# it up spectacularly.

Direct quote from POTUS to a 7-year-old calling to ask him about Santa: Are you still a believer in Santa? Because at seven it's marginal, right?"

Seriously? What kind of shit-tier human do you have to be to manage to be * this* devoid of empathy, common decency, or just paternal instincts in general? Talking to children on the phone should not be a challenge if you're the President of the United States. Asking a child about Santa should not be difficult, particularly if you're the President of the United States who happens to lie about 35 times a day... on a slow day. The ONE TIME WE ACTUALLY NEED YOU TO STRETCH THE TRUTH -- or just STFU and pretend to be capable of human feelings -- you manage to completely bumblefuck it? This should quite literally be the EASIEST part of being President. I know I shouldn't be surprised by anything Trump does at this point, but this one completely threw me for a loop. There is something seriously wrong with any human who can make it to 72-years-old and not be enchanted by the magic of a young child's imagination.

Anyway, just wanted to rant for a minute; that's all I got. I've got a piece on Syria coming soon in response to a few questions about the tensions between Turkey and the Kurds. I would expect that to go live on Wednesday. 

I hope you all have a wonderful holiday, and that those of you with young children managed to keep them away from the President's best effort to ruin their innocence. 

Saturday, December 22, 2018

Twitter Questions!

Sorry guys! I meant to get to these last night, but it didn't work out that way.

  • What does the shutdown mean for ordinary Americans?

Probably not much, unless you're looking to get a FHA loan or you're a small business owner and need something from SBA. It means a great deal for the folks in Government, though:

Thursday, December 20, 2018

Shrodinger's Caliphate

Is ISIS defeated? Are they alive? Nobody knows!

...oh, who am I kidding? Everyone not named Donald Trump (or one of his mindless minions) knows.

We are abandoning our SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) allies at a critical juncture: they are poised to take control of Hajin, the last ISIS-held territory in Syria, at the exact moment Erdogan is threatening to cross the border and attack the YPG (the Kurdish Force which constitutes most of the SDF). This would lead to massive destabilization east of the Euphrates, and the death of US-backed forces that we've promised to defend. This decision was made without coordination at any level of DOD, including SecDef Mattis, who was pissed -- and tendered his resignation in protest -- during a contentious Oval Office meeting this afternoon (12/20). Aside from Syrian civilians themselves, the Kurds have probably been the most-impacted by -- and the most-influential in -- the Syrian civil war. The Kurds, along with various Arab militias and coalition airpower, have driven ISIS out of territory after territory, including their de facto capital, Raqqa. Now, at the urging of Turkey in what seems to be an obvious quid pro quo, we're going to leave them to die.

This is an egregious betrayal. In concert with the removal of sanctions on Oleg Deripaska's companies (U Rusal, En+Group, and EuroSibEnergy), it's clearer than ever that POTUS is carrying Putin's water.

Quick reminder on Deripaska: Once the richest man in Russia, and a close Putin ally, the oligarch Deripaska is caught up in the Mueller probe due to his connections to Paul Manafort, including a $19,000,000 "investment."

If we withdraw from Syria -- and Afghanistan -- as planned, we are paving the way for an insurgent resurgence, and potentially another 9/11. Analysts look at threats from various organizations on kind of a sliding scale, called a threat spectrum, not to be confused with *the* Threat Matrix. Picture a straight line numbered from 0-100 for an example. If we're talking about ISIS, 0 (the left-hand side) would be "No Threat" -- 100 (far-right) would be "ISIS has weapons of mass destruction." On 9/11, Al Qaeda would have been at somewhere around number 90 on the spectrum. The Paris attacks would have been somewhere around 60. Lone wolves, while still deadly and a big threat, are somewhere around 25. The reason that we've never gotten to 90 or 100 again on any threat spectrum is because we've kept constant pressure on the organizations that seek to do us harm. When the leadership of these organizations are worried about their lives, they don't have the time or the resources to plan a 9/11 style attack on the mainland.

I go through all of this essentially to say one thing: this decision makes us less safe. If we continue with POTUS' current thought process of pulling out of Afghanistan too, it's going to be even worse.

When it comes to NatSec discussions, I try to keep them pretty basic just to help give everyone an idea of what's going on. If people are actually interested, I could definitely go more in-depth and probably rant around geopolitics (particularly in the Middle East) until you all want to jump (or push me?) off a cliff. Or maybe I could behave myself and keep it somewhere in between. My goal is to try and provide information without boring anyone to death, but I'm ultimately here for you guys, so please let me know how you'd like me to approach these discussions in the future!

Sunday, December 16, 2018

Book Recommendations

I've had a couple people ask on Twitter if there was a list of all my book recommendations somewhere. There wasn't, but it's probably a good idea, seeing as I post a lot of updates (sorry, not sorry) and people probably miss quite a few of them in the spam. So, here are all of my favorite books that I've recommended over the last year on Twitter. I'll update this list as I add more.

Obligatory reminder: I might earn a small commission for items purchased through links. I don't disclose this to encourage you to buy anything, only to be transparent. December's donations will go exclusively to The Special Operations Warrior Foundation. They do fantastic work supporting the families of fallen and wounded Special Operations personnel, with a focus of sending children of fallen warriors to college.

Friday, December 14, 2018

Angry's Impeachment Prediction

Many of you have asked me which Senators I think will defect and vote for conviction after the House impeaches. Here's a list of my best guesses with the information available at this time:

Couple of notes before we start: this exercise assumes a few things: 

1. all Democrats will vote to convict. 
2. it will happen in the next (116th) Congress that starts on January 3rd, 2019, so I have not listed any retiring members here.
3. I am also listing both independents as YES votes, but that seems to be all but guaranteed. So we need 20 R's to vote for impeachment.

I still fully believe that as information continues to come out (we haven't even gotten to the really good stuff yet), we will see a mass-exodus from Trump in an attempt to save 2020. Far too little, way too late, but I expect for it to happen. I don't think Trump will actually be removed from Office via impeachment, but I do believe the public whip counts will scare the crap out of him and he'll end up resigning. At least if he resigns, he can do it on his own terms (ish) and spin it the way he wants... until he ends up in prison. 

You'll notice that I didn't put a vote next to Graham or Cruz. I ultimately believe we will end up with 70+ votes to convict in the final whip counts, but here are the first 20 that I believe will break the dam:

Twitter Questions

Just a brief reminder that the new site ( angrystaffer.com ) should be fully live early next week, hoping for Monday! Had some good questio...