Saturday, May 20, 2017

Political Whiplash

Whew. What a week. I don't even know where to start.

The McMaster, "Trump's conversation with the Russians was wholly appropriate." narrative has been thoroughly undercut by now, but I guess we should start there, because I do think one part of that briefing was very interesting. The most telling exchange was when he said that Trump didn't reveal the source of the intelligence, and in fact, he didn't even know the source of intelligence. To some people, this strains credulity, but it gives me a question and some thoughts: Why didn't he know the source of the intelligence? Two possible reasons:

1. He doesn't care enough to pay attention.

2. Nobody trusted him enough to tell him.

In my assessment, both of these options could potentially be correct. It's well-documented that he doesn't like long briefings. He likes bullet-points, graphs and pictures. Preferably no more than a page long. This isn't hyperbole, this is actually what he asks for. To think that you can get a comprehensive PDB down to a page of bullet points with accompanying graphs is ludicrous, but here we are. Secondly, it has been widely speculated that the IC is holding back the juiciest bits of its intelligence. This is seeming more and more likely as time goes on. There is also an emerging narrative that I believe is worth thinking about. We know that the IC is pissed at the constant degradation. We know they worry that POTUS might not always (read: ever) be tight-lipped. Is it possible that this was an IC sting operation and false intel was given to Trump to see exactly what happened with it and the Russians? I think we will be able to see with more clarity when POTUS reaches Israel, but I will definitely be paying attention to this idea. Clarity: I don't have any information to say that this is what happened, but I'm going to file this under 'intriguing and possible' and see what I can find out.

In what would have normally been the biggest story of the week, it has been released that we have Russian intercepts bragging that they could use Flynn to influence Trump. From CNN: "Russian officials bragged in conversations during the presidential campaign that they had cultivated a strong relationship with former Trump adviser retired Gen. Michael Flynn and believed they could use him to influence Donald Trump and his team, sources told CNN.
The conversations deeply concerned US intelligence officials, some of whom acted on their own to limit how much sensitive information they shared with Flynn, who was tapped to become Trump's national security adviser, current and former governments officials said.
"This was a five-alarm fire from early on," one former Obama administration official said, "the way the Russians were talking about him." Another former administration official said Flynn was viewed as a potential national security problem."

So we have Sally Yates personally going to the WH to inform them that Flynn is susceptible to blackmail, Russians on tape bragging that they've cultivated Flynn enough to use him as leverage against Trump AND we know that the intel community was limiting information that they gave Flynn due to at least one of these things. But he's a good man and there was absolutely no collusion. Got it.

See previous comment about this normally being the biggest story of the week. I don't even know what's going on anymore. From NYT: "President Trump told Russian officials in the Oval Office this month that firing the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, had relieved “great pressure” on him, according to a document summarizing the meeting.
“I just fired the head of the F.B.I. He was crazy, a real nut job,” Mr. Trump said, according to the document, which was read to The New York Times by an American official. “I faced great pressure because of Russia. That’s taken off.”"

So we have the sitting President of the United States, talking to the Russians in the same Oval Office meeting in which he apparently gave up highly secret Israeli intelligence, bragging about firing the FBI director the day before and claiming that doing so would reduce the pressure that he was facing due to the investigation... related to the people that he's talking to... again, in the Oval Office... with American press excluded. But there was absolutely no collusion and the investigation is a witch hunt. Got it.

See previous comment on this normally being the biggest story of the week. Enter Rosenstein and his bombshell special prosecutor announcement. I've seen a bunch of doubts on twitter about Rosenstein and his motives, but he is a white hat. I hope this proves it to everyone. Mueller is a fantastic choice. He's thorough and highly respected. He will get to the bottom of this. In a convenient twist of fate, and as documented by several MSM pundits, the appointment of Mueller also gave the Trump administration a unique opportunity to get back on track and refer all questions to the special counsel and/or DOJ. So of course Trump promptly got on Twitter and complained that Obama (for what you ask? I have no idea) or the Clinton campaign were never under special counsel investigation. I'm not sure when we started appointing special prosecutors to investigate losing campaigns, but here we are. It's a Trump news cycle. 

Oh, and then he goes out for a very subdued news conference the next day and flips his position back to, "yeah... I fired Comey at the request of Rosenstein." unfortunately for him, this was about 30 minutes after Rosenstein briefed the Senate and confirmed that he knew Comey would be fired before he even wrote his memo. And after the Lester Holt Trump interview, and the Oval Office reporting and.. and.. you get it. 

Finally, on to what I believe is the biggest story of the week! From WaPo: 
"The law enforcement investigation into possible coordination between Russia and the Trump campaign has identified a current White House official as a significant person of interest, showing that the probe is reaching into the highest levels of government, according to people familiar with the matter.
The senior White House adviser under scrutiny by investigators is someone close to the president, according to these people, who would not further identify the official.
The revelation comes as the investigation appears to be entering a more overtly active phase, with investigators shifting from work that has remained largely hidden from the public to conducting interviews and using a grand jury to issue subpoenas. The intensity of the probe is expected to accelerate in the coming weeks, the people said."

If that doesn't scream 'JARED KUSHNER,' I don't know what does. The investigation is speeding up, and I think we will begin to see tangible results (read: arrests, or at least more substantial leaks) pretty quickly.

Other noteworthy news of the day. In 2010, 18-20 CIA assets in China were compromised and killed or jailed. From the NYT: "The Chinese government systematically dismantled C.I.A. spying operations in the country starting in 2010, killing or imprisoning more than a dozen sources over two years and crippling intelligence gathering there for years afterward.
Current and former American officials described the intelligence breach as one of the worst in decades. It set off a scramble in Washington’s intelligence and law enforcement agencies to contain the fallout, but investigators were bitterly divided over the cause. Some were convinced that a mole within the C.I.A. had betrayed the United States. Others believed that the Chinese had hacked the covert system the C.I.A. used to communicate with its foreign sources. Years later, that debate remains unresolved."

During a period of the best intelligence we've ever gotten from China, sources suddenly started turning up missing or dead and information began to dry up. The problem? We still don't know why. I'm going to follow this story closely as well, because who doesn't love a good spy story? Even after we've been living one with Russia for the last two years, they still have a special place in my heart.

Lastly, Hours before Air Force One landed in Saudi Arabia, the Saudi military intercepted a missile from Yemen and launched an operation to destroy the missiles launch site. No casualties were reported, but it is a noteworthy provocation on the eve of a Presidential visit.

Speaking of the Saudi visit, is anyone else slightly nauseated (Comey quote stolen on purpose) by the lavish praise and flattery going on with POTUS? I'm a firm believer that you shouldn't have to endlessly flatter a grown man in order to get him to be civil to you, particularly the President of the United States.

Oh well. Maybe he'll really like it there and decide to stay? Wishful thinking?


1 comment:

  1. Two meetings in which Comey was suppose to give testimony have been cancelled supposedly because Mueller wanted to check out Comey's notes, etc., before Comey testified. I'm afraid firing Comey did stop the progress Comey was making...IMO, they all love Mueller because he is also a republican and he can and will tamp down the energy and interest in the investigations of trump/russia! Sad! Of course, time will tell.

    One more thought to share, IMO, Sessions is still calling the shots on this, however, he knows he has to make it look like Rosenstein is in charge. The reporting is that with Mueller at the head of the investigation, since he doesn't talk about his investigations, the public probably won't hear too much more about it...BS...if trump stops squealing like a stuck pig, that will mean he likes Mueller as the SP choice...if Mueller does the right thing and keeps the people informed and trump keeps squealing, then we'll know we have the right Special Prosecutor. Thanks.

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