Friday, December 14, 2018

Angry's Impeachment Prediction

Many of you have asked me which Senators I think will defect and vote for conviction after the House impeaches. Here's a list of my best guesses with the information available at this time:

Couple of notes before we start: this exercise assumes a few things: 

1. all Democrats will vote to convict. 
2. it will happen in the next (116th) Congress that starts on January 3rd, 2019, so I have not listed any retiring members here.
3. I am also listing both independents as YES votes, but that seems to be all but guaranteed. So we need 20 R's to vote for impeachment.

I still fully believe that as information continues to come out (we haven't even gotten to the really good stuff yet), we will see a mass-exodus from Trump in an attempt to save 2020. Far too little, way too late, but I expect for it to happen. I don't think Trump will actually be removed from Office via impeachment, but I do believe the public whip counts will scare the crap out of him and he'll end up resigning. At least if he resigns, he can do it on his own terms (ish) and spin it the way he wants... until he ends up in prison. 

You'll notice that I didn't put a vote next to Graham or Cruz. I ultimately believe we will end up with 70+ votes to convict in the final whip counts, but here are the first 20 that I believe will break the dam:

20 comments:

  1. Grassley, McConnell & Collins?? No. Sorry, just no. They will never vote to impeach him.

    ReplyDelete
  2. No chance on Gardner, Mr. Votes with Trump 91% of the time is not likely to impeach.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He's in deep trouble here in Colorado. A recent poll has him behind a generic Dem Senate candidate. As a result, I do think he flips to salvage any chance for a competitive race in '20. As Angry Staffer suggests, far too little and way too late. If the next presidential election has any semblance to the last election, he's toast.

      Delete
    2. I live in CO and I can say that he's not in that much trouble. But if he keeps hanging out with Trump on Air Force One that may change. And him standing up to Jeff Sessions on the marijuana thing did help him.

      Delete
  3. Mitch? I don't think so. I think he's neck-deep in something bad. Cabinet positions were (possibly?) for sale in this administration and his wife is there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lindsey Graham is also neck-deep into something bad. Even his fellow Senate members have noticed the change.

      Delete
  4. Looks good... Cruz is in hot ass water samsies as comrad Graham.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Kyl is being replaced by McSally and she's a sycophant who will vote no.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I'm unsure about McConnell and RICK SCOTT. He's a dick that's pasted to trump. I have doubts about Grassley but he's senile, so maybe?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Portman? No way. He's absolutely useless so he blindly follows the Republican line. No spine, no conviction, no beliefs.

    Fun fact: If you try to call his office, his mailbox is always full. *Always.*

    ReplyDelete
  8. Ducey appointed McSalley to finish the final year's of McCain's term. I know you probably knew that, but I do wonder how the numbers here change.

    She had to meet with Cindy McCain first considering that McSalley supported Trump, and because this meeting went well, Ducey finalized the appointment.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I think Graham, McConnell, Rubio, Hatch are owned by the Russians and won't vote yes in an attempt to save their own treasonous asses.

    ReplyDelete
  10. What can we do to help? Anything? Sooner the better that this clown car is gone.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I don't know if I agree about Lankford. He's swimming in the KoolAde as much as Inhofe. I really don't think either of them has the needed integrity to vote to impeach, even should the overwhelming evidence make it the obvious choice.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Per the Constitution, Article 1, Sec 3:
    "The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present."

    "Two thirds of the members present" carries a lot of the weight in that section.
    How about we schedule the Senate trial when 30 or 40 Republican senators are off "meeting with their constituents (playing golf)"? Would improve the odds wonderfully...and they could legitimately say "Wasn't my fault - I didn't vote against him".

    ReplyDelete

Twitter Questions

Just a brief reminder that the new site ( angrystaffer.com ) should be fully live early next week, hoping for Monday! Had some good questio...