Thursday, December 20, 2018

Shrodinger's Caliphate

Is ISIS defeated? Are they alive? Nobody knows!

...oh, who am I kidding? Everyone not named Donald Trump (or one of his mindless minions) knows.

We are abandoning our SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) allies at a critical juncture: they are poised to take control of Hajin, the last ISIS-held territory in Syria, at the exact moment Erdogan is threatening to cross the border and attack the YPG (the Kurdish Force which constitutes most of the SDF). This would lead to massive destabilization east of the Euphrates, and the death of US-backed forces that we've promised to defend. This decision was made without coordination at any level of DOD, including SecDef Mattis, who was pissed -- and tendered his resignation in protest -- during a contentious Oval Office meeting this afternoon (12/20). Aside from Syrian civilians themselves, the Kurds have probably been the most-impacted by -- and the most-influential in -- the Syrian civil war. The Kurds, along with various Arab militias and coalition airpower, have driven ISIS out of territory after territory, including their de facto capital, Raqqa. Now, at the urging of Turkey in what seems to be an obvious quid pro quo, we're going to leave them to die.

This is an egregious betrayal. In concert with the removal of sanctions on Oleg Deripaska's companies (U Rusal, En+Group, and EuroSibEnergy), it's clearer than ever that POTUS is carrying Putin's water.

Quick reminder on Deripaska: Once the richest man in Russia, and a close Putin ally, the oligarch Deripaska is caught up in the Mueller probe due to his connections to Paul Manafort, including a $19,000,000 "investment."

If we withdraw from Syria -- and Afghanistan -- as planned, we are paving the way for an insurgent resurgence, and potentially another 9/11. Analysts look at threats from various organizations on kind of a sliding scale, called a threat spectrum, not to be confused with *the* Threat Matrix. Picture a straight line numbered from 0-100 for an example. If we're talking about ISIS, 0 (the left-hand side) would be "No Threat" -- 100 (far-right) would be "ISIS has weapons of mass destruction." On 9/11, Al Qaeda would have been at somewhere around number 90 on the spectrum. The Paris attacks would have been somewhere around 60. Lone wolves, while still deadly and a big threat, are somewhere around 25. The reason that we've never gotten to 90 or 100 again on any threat spectrum is because we've kept constant pressure on the organizations that seek to do us harm. When the leadership of these organizations are worried about their lives, they don't have the time or the resources to plan a 9/11 style attack on the mainland.

I go through all of this essentially to say one thing: this decision makes us less safe. If we continue with POTUS' current thought process of pulling out of Afghanistan too, it's going to be even worse.

When it comes to NatSec discussions, I try to keep them pretty basic just to help give everyone an idea of what's going on. If people are actually interested, I could definitely go more in-depth and probably rant around geopolitics (particularly in the Middle East) until you all want to jump (or push me?) off a cliff. Or maybe I could behave myself and keep it somewhere in between. My goal is to try and provide information without boring anyone to death, but I'm ultimately here for you guys, so please let me know how you'd like me to approach these discussions in the future!

10 comments:

  1. More information, more details, if you can provide them safely. By all means. That post might get skimmed by many, but if nothing else, it reminds us that there are still serious people manning the "wall" in this Administration.

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  2. A few more paragraphs wouldn't be mind numbing. Thank you for taking the time to explain the current events.

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  3. Individual-1 is doing an outstanding job at reducing US standing in the world.
    Allies?
    Kurds being betrayed.
    NATO countries being pissed on at every opportunity nevermind that NATO has been standing shoulder to shoulder with the US in the war on terror since 2001.
    This marks the US under Trump as an unreliable ally and partner.
    Remaining silent in the face of russian excesses. One would think the US and Russia is allied or something.
    I suspect the longterm damage to US alliances and relations will last far past Trump. It takes much effort and time to build an alliance, but very short time to ruin it.

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  4. Can you tell us if there at least some capable adult/s left at the WH who can try and contain this madman?

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  5. I agree with you. The withdrawal from Syria, so abruptly, is a slap in the face to all the people in DOD and USAID and DOS and others who are trying to work with refugees, with Kurds, etc. It is also a huge fuck you to the Kurds as we, again, betray them after they have been fighting for us. The disgust and revulsion I feel about this president and this administration is huge. Bleh.

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  6. what and who can step up to trump to save the kurds?

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  7. It sounds bad, thank you for all that you do.

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  8. I imagine Trump has warned the Turks there will be severe consequences if the attack our Kurdish allies. The left lacks self-awareness- MSNBC pundit Rachel Maddie wrote a book arguing against unauthorized wars. She now is attacking Trump for ending one.

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  9. This may be shocking, “Unknown”, but it's easy to hold both opinions & not “lack self-awareness”. Many of us lefties opposed the US getting into engagements in countries where they had no business. (getting into Iraq when they had nothing to do with 9/11 is one off the top of my head). But once they are there & especially if troops are comitted to training missions? OF COURSE it's necessary to stay & finish the job properly. You CANNOT just rip them from their posts without any planning on the whim of an ill-informed “Commander-in-chief” who will not listen to ANY of the myriad military experts telling him he is flat out wrong.
    So if it suits your purposes and your ego to bash the left & Maddow right now, cool. But that doesn't change the fact your President is about to make a move that WILL, undoubtedly, cost lives.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete

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