Twitter Questions!

Hey guys, just wanted to take the time to answer a few questions from last night's AMA that needed longer responses. Keep 'em coming. Not like I have anything better to do than work for no pay, anyway. 😉

"Do you see a shifting away from Trump in the GOP? Can they not see the damage he is doing? Do you have insight into what they are saying behind closed doors?"

This is a great question, and a topic that irritates me greatly. Almost without exception, the people who defend Trump in public slander him mercilessly behind closed-doors. It's hypocrisy on a scale that you probably won't find many places outside of DC. They all know he's an idiot. They all know he's bad for the GOP brand (and the country). There really aren't many people in Congress who actually like Trump, outside of Meadows, Gaetz, and a couple of outliers. It's a not-so-well kept secret that McConnell and Murdoch met to discuss their exit strategy. I would have expected to see more public deployment of it already, but I don't think it will be long; the shutdown is not playing well for the GOP with pollsters. It's almost like blaming the Democrats for a shutdown when you control the entire government was a bad idea. Weird, huh?

"How much danger is the Mueller investigation in really?"

Not much. I still think Trump will move on Mueller at some point -- and while Whitaker is around, there is *some* risk -- but it's not going to do any good. Mueller has farmed enough of his case out other jurisdictions (namely SDNY and EDVA) to prevent his work from stopping even if Trump had him fired tomorrow. With Democrat control of the House coming in 5 days, Trump kicked that particular can down the road until he ran out of road. The backlash would be immediate, and astronomical. The work is also entirely too far along to be stopped now. People who have known Mueller for years have said on the record that he would have put a Dead Man's Switch in place the moment Comey was fired. That's been well over a year. FBI agents also aren't going to stop investigating a crime that by now they all know took place even if for some reason Mueller is removed. This is speculation, but I would guess shortly after the new Congress is seated, Mueller starts dropping bombs again. I still maintain Trump will move to fire Mueller as soon as Jr., Jared, or Ivanka are indicted, but it's too late. 

"How has Mattis leaving changed things?"

Mattis' abrupt departure has been met with condemnation, shock, and outrage in the corridors of power. You probably noticed the anti-Mattis crowd try -- and fail miserably -- to establish a narrative that he was somehow bad for this administration. That was *never* going to fly. It shouldn't have worked with Comey, either, but he was such a polarizing figure that it left enough room for both sides of the issue to find a reason to be mad at him. Mattis, on the other hand, is universally respected and widely recognized as *the* preeminent military mind of this generation. His letter moved Congress' "oh shit" meter further to the right than almost anything else could have. Is it enough to act? I suppose we shall soon find out. 

"You haven't talked about North Korea in awhile. What are your current thought's about that hot spot?"

Those of you who have followed me for awhile know North Korea is one of my favorite things to talk about. I've avoided discussing it recently because you can only say "I told you so!!!!" so many times before you sound like a jackass. Kidding... kinda. But no, North Korea is a mess. Mattis leaving makes it even more of a mess, because nobody left who has Trump's ear knows anything about the Korean Peninsula. He wanted to attack North Korea during one of my previous North Korea spam-fests (around the time the three Carrier Strike Groups were in the area of operations) but Kelly, Mattis and McMaster talked him out of it. I know people hate hearing about the adults in the room, but I don't think *anyone* can honestly tell me you feel better about John Bolton and his ridiculous mustache advising Trump on military matters than you did Mattis, Kelly, and McMaster. We've avoided one almost-war with North Korea already during this administration, I don't really look forward to another. I'm not as excited about the lack of recent missile testing as the Trump sycophants on TV; it just tells me they've progressed beyond the stage of needing continuous tests to advance their program. They're essentially 100% on intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests. We can quibble over the reentry vehicles if we want, but the facts are their missiles worked way better than they should have, way faster than they should have, and they've done nothing to slow down research or production. Coupled with the fact that they've probably developed a working hydrogen bomb and are working feverishly on minimization, I'm afraid the North Korea problem is going to come to a head far sooner than any of us wish for it to. Unfortunately, there really are no good options left. If we were going to take their program by force before they developed the capability to hit us at home, that window is firmly closed. To be clear: we don't *know* with 100% certainty that they have the capability to marry a warhead to a missile and land it with precision inside the United States; but we do know they have the capability to at least reach the mainland with a missile, which doesn't leave us a whole lot of low-risk strategic options. Since Trump and Kim "fell in love" (puke) we've also given them a solid 6 months + to continue their work on minimization. The Trump administration's Korean Peninsula policy has given the United States exactly nothing, and given North Korea everything they could have possibly wanted: we no longer buzz their airspace with jets and bombers, we no longer participate in joint exercises with South Korea, and we've given them invaluable time to continue their research.