Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Trump's Russia Problem (Part 1)

Although he will never admit it publicly, the Russiagate story often seems to be the foremost thing on Donald Trump's mind. And if you couldn't tell by the tweets and rants at press conferences, the bad press really bothers him. A lot. The happiest moments of his presidency so far have been the day after his joint address to congress and the week after the Syria strikes. Why? Because the national media largely left the Russia story on the shelf to praise the 45th president for "finally becoming presidential". These positive periods never last for long and he's soon back to ranting about unfair coverage and the biased media.

It has been well-documented that POTUS is an avid consumer of cable news. There is nothing wrong with this inherently, other than the fact that it seems many of his policies come directly from what he sees on television, rather than what he reads in his Presidential Daily Briefing (PDB). He says that CNN and MSNBC unwatchable, but they actually seem to be the networks that he watches the most. I can only assume that the reason for this is to see what the Russia story of the day will be. As he realizes that this narrative is not going away, he is desperately trying to find ways to gain the positive coverage that he craves. People have asked me about his mental state on several occasions. I am not a psychologist, but I do not personally believe that he is crazy. He's an insecure, egotistical paradox, but not crazy. Even with all of his narcissistic tendencies, privately he appears to be one of the most self-conscious people that I've ever met. He is constantly seeking validation. He often appears to be more interested in how his actions are being received than the consequences of said actions. Aides and staffers are constantly asked things like, "what do they (the media / public) think about ----?" It's kind of sad coming from the leader of the free world.

I said in a previous post that the Russia problem was not going away. That was quickly highlighted by a CNN breaking news story that Michael Flynn lied (again) and potentially (duh) broke the law by not disclosing his Russia dealings. Let's briefly recap the extent of the Russia problem:

This is a graphic highlighting most of the known ostensible ties to Russia.

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Let's start with some of the most damning evidence first. We know that members of the congressional intelligence committees have said that when this is all said and done, "people are going to end up in jail." We know that Trump tower had an exclusive connection with Alfa bank (Russian bank with KGB ties) and Spectrum Health Group (owned by Betsy DeVos and her husband). Quoted from @TeaPainUSA in an attempt to simplify the pattern. If you want to read the whole article, you can find it here:

"A connection is made from Alfa Bank to Trump Tower, which may last anywhere from 1 minute to 15 minutes or more, following by a longer "sleep" period. When averaged over months, these events charted an average time between connections to be 3660 seconds, or 1 hour and 1 minute. Whatever was running, it would hook up, transfer data for a few minutes, then go to sleep for an hour. This was the clue that led Tea Pain to formulate a much clearer working model to explain what we were all seeing: SQL Server Database Replication between multiple sites.

Database Replication is a rather simple concept.  When you have a database with millions of records representing hundreds of gigabytes of data, and you would like to keep a copy of that database housed in 2 or more locations, it makes no sense to continually copy the entire database from point A to point B every time a change is made, so you “replicate” it.
This allows only the changes made to be sent from one database to another.  This is accomplished by a process that runs on timely intervals, usually an hour, that wakes up and checks the changes made since the last hour and broadcasts those changes to the other database.  The other database, in turn, check for its changes and broadcasts them in the other direction.  Voila!  Both databases are identical!"

Trump Tower functioned as a center-point in a data-sharing triangle between Alfa Bank (read: Russian Intelligence) and Spectrum Health (reminder: owned by Betsy DeVos... whose brother, Erik Prince - yes, the same one that founded Blackwater - also happened to orchestrate a backchannel between Russian Intelligence and the Trump campaign in the Seychelles islands. More on that later.) As Tea Pain asked, "What do Trump Tower, the Devos Family and the Russians all have in common? A desire for Donald Trump to be President of the United States."

So, we know that all three sites had synched data, but what was the purpose? To keep a long sub-point as short as possible, the working theory outlined by Tea Pain is that Russia created a voter targeting database with information from the DNC hack that was filtered through Spectrum Health, and Trump Tower, which allowed them to create a specifically targeted "hit list" complete with social media handles, addresses, names and phone numbers. This was then passed on to the 1000 Russian trolls that we know were working against Hillary Clinton in the election, who used the data to run targeted ad campaigns in key battleground states that might have just been enough to tip the vote in Mr. Trump's favor. We don't know this for sure, yet. But I can assure you that the NSA, the CIA and the FBI are all working on it.

We also know that Trump for whatever reason is absolutely refusing to release his tax returns. His treasury secretary, Mr. Mnuchin highlighted this again today during the White House Press Briefing. I would assume that he has a pretty good reason for breaking such a long-standing precedent, and it's certainly not that he's under audit; the IRS has already confirmed that anyone has the autonomy to release their tax returns, audit or no.

We know that at least two people associated with the Trump campaign, Michael Flynn and Rudy Giuliani have requested immunity or  some kind of a deal, and the FBI has told them both, "no thanks". I'm not an FBI agent, but this tells me that they've probably already got enough information. I don't know the extent of the legal trouble Giuliani is in at the moment, but for context, here's a photo of him meeting with Alfa bank execs. Reminder: this is the guy that Trump wanted to use as his cyber security expert:




We also know that Paul Manafort (You know, the guy that played a 'very limited role' in the Trump campaign... as campaign manager) had an office in Moscow, worked as an advisor, helping Viktor Yanukovich (Putin backer in Ukraine) win the 2010 election in Ukraine and is going to be at least the second Trump campaign member to register as a foreign agent. He was paid millions of dollars by Oleg Deripaska, a Russian aluminum magnate, and he is currently wanted for questioning in Ukraine regarding his role in a corruption scandal. A ledger was discovered last month in which Manafort's name was written 22 times as the recipient of payments totaling 12.7 million dollars, according to Ukrainian anti-corruption authorities.

This feels like a good place to stop part 1. Part 2 will be discussing Jeff Sessions, Roger Stone, and possibly the most interesting person of all, Michael Flynn.

I would like to clarify one point before I close out this post: I do not have any personal, non-open-source information that suggests that President Trump directly colluded with Russia or Russian Intelligence in order to win the election. There is certainly a lot of open-source information and circumstantial evidence that suggests that members of his campaign absolutely were in bed with the Russians, but it would be irresponsible at this point to declare POTUS complicit in anything. I don't typically believe in coincidences, particularly this many, but I think it's safe to say that we should let the FBI and Congressional committees finish their investigations before we start pointing fingers directly at the president.

Monday, April 24, 2017

Twitter Questions

Gotten lots of replies and questions on Twitter - I'm going to try to answer all of those here:


Question: Where do you think we will actually land with a border wall? Is it all for show to appease the base? How much does he really care about it?

The border wall appears to be nothing more than red-meat for the base. He actually is passionate about what he sees as border security, but he also knows that there's absolutely no way that Congress is going to appropriate the funds for the construction. Everything that I'm hearing suggests that he is not prepared to shut down the government over the funding argument. Priebus kind of backed away from the actual physical wall concept on the Sunday shows, instead highlighting 'border security'. POTUS absolutely *wanted* to build a wall, if for no other reason than to keep a campaign promise, but as he realizes that it's not realistic, his view has shifted to using Congress as the scapegoat.

Question: Does Trump communicate more clearly in private than he does in public?

He is clearly more comfortable in private, but the communication is similar. Just more cursing. He is just as obsessed with wins and ratings in private.

Question: How are decisions actually made in the WH? Why so many flip flops and walk-backs? What are the REAL policies, or is it as fickle as it seems?

As Bannon's influence wanes, there is actually a policy-centric approach that is developing, especially on foreign policy. McMaster seems to have a really solid grasp on the NSC and POTUS is increasingly listening to him and Mattis, which is great for the country because he (POTUS) has exactly zero foreign policy experience... or much of an opinion beyond talking points, honestly. As far as domestic policy, what you see is pretty much what you get. Both travel bans and health care were both completely done with a 'fly by the seat of your pants' mentality. His immediate team is constantly scrambling around to try and keep up with what the boss wants at any given time of the day. Example: when he announced that they were going to be doing health care as well as funding the government this week, everyone was completely shocked. The original agreement was that funding government was priority and that the health care vote would tentatively be scheduled for next week (you know... seeing as they don't actually have a bill yet). Then POTUS had an, "oooh.. shiny!" moment and left everyone trying to figure out how to cram both into the same week. You're seeing them walk that back a little bit now, but the message is clear: POTUS wants wins before 100 day mark.

Question: Russiagate

I am actually working on a whole post for Russiagate - there's so much to cover that I want to make sure that I have enough space to do it. Suffice to say, Russiagate is NOT going away any time soon. Comey (FBI) and Rogers (NSA) are both testifying in another closed session of the House Intel Committee soon and Sally Yates, John Brennan, and James Clapper are going to be testifying in an open session that is tentatively scheduled for May 2nd. There's been a quiet push to try to move the Yates / Brennan / Clapper hearing to closed session, but Mike Conaway and Adam Schiff aren't having it. This is another reason that I feel like military action in North Korea is increasingly likely - the administration enjoyed the positive coverage that it received in the wake of the cruise missile strike in Syria. They don't seem to realize that dragging the country into a protracted ground war on the Korean peninsula isn't going to garner the same positive ratings.

Keep the questions coming, folks. I'll answer what I can on Twitter and I'll continue to update this page with the longer responses.

Saturday, April 22, 2017

The North Korea Dilemma

Pause for a moment and think back to all of the cruelest and most violent people in history: Attila the Hun, Genghis Khan, Ivan IV, Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, Napoleon Bonaparte, etc. What do all of these people have in common?

None of them had the ability to kill hundreds of thousands of people with a single weapon.

This is why a sophisticated nuclear arsenal in North Korea is an untenable situation for the rest of the world. The prospect of North Korea possessing vast stockpiles of chemical weapons is daunting enough, but a modernized nuclear arsenal is frightening on a whole new level. Think of the unhinged dictator that executes his own top advisors and generals (many of whom are family) on a whim possessing the ability to launch a weapon that could change the course of history.

Nuclear weapons are not a responsibility that should ever be taken lightly -- the launch / no launch decision-window isn't weeks, days, or even hours -- it's minutes. In some cases, research suggests that the person in control of "the button" will have to make that vital decision in as little as 5 minutes.

We know that North Korea has tested it's first high-thrust rocket engine, which many analyst say could be a massive leap forward in the two-stage process required to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Fortunately, they seem to be having issues actually launching some of their missiles, as highlighted by the most recent failed tests. Hitting targets across the globe with any degree of accuracy is another issue that will likely take the hermit regime some time to perfect. This still begs the question: how do we deny them the opportunity to perfect this technique? I think most reasonable people in the world agree that North Korea armed with ICBMs would be a global threat. There are few options left:

1. China:  China stepping in and really putting pressure on Kim and sanctions seem to be the preferred course of action at the moment. China has already refused all coal imports from North Korea for the remainder of the year, which by all accounts should be a significant hit to their economy. The issue? North Korea doesn't seem to care. They've launched two rounds of missiles since China announced the import ban. Could it be that Beijing's attack dog is all the way off the leash?

2. Sanctions. Preferred option number two and generally concurrent with option one, The United States is reportedly preparing another sweeping sanction package that will further cripple North Korea's economy, where 2 out of 5 people are already considered undernourished. The issue? North Korea doesn't care. They make some money off of the black market weapons trade, and nobody at the top is feeling the pain. What extravagance is left in the isolated country rests squarely in the hands of the Kim regime.

3. The Military Option. Nobody's favorite plan, but it's quickly appearing to be the only feasible one remaining. If North Korea doesn't care what China says, is unbothered by what should be crippling sanctions, and continues to fire off missiles at a record pace, what else can be done?  Not much. We know that our military planners have a pre-emptive package that would be ready to roll out at a moments notice. Their air defenses are no match for our planes. Their troops outnumber ours several to one, but they are underequipped, under trained and probably at this point, under-fed. We could wipe out much of North Korea's nuclear capability in a single bombing run, but could we do it quickly enough that they would be unable to launch a nuclear counterattack? Nobody knows for sure. It's common knowledge that we have several layers of missile defense on the Korean peninsula and in the surrounding oceans. Could we knock down any missiles they were able to fire during our opening salvo? Probably. Even barring the launch of a nuclear weapon, North Korea still has a considerable amount of conventional weaponry, including artillery, aimed directly at South Korea. Several tunnels have been found and destroyed leading from North Korea under the DMZ, but have they found them all? Nobody expects Kim Jong Un to allow his troops to sit idly by while we destroy his missile program and his air defenses. South Korea could very reasonably face an all out conventional counterattack. With U.S. assets (ships, planes, soldiers, artillery, etc.) in the area, the counterattack could likely be repelled fairly quickly, but that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be costly. Hundreds to thousands of soldiers and civilians in South Korea could potentially die in the battle, not to mention the civilians that would die in the opening salvo on the North Korean side of the DMZ.

Ground war in Asia has a reputation for being absolutely devastating; the terrain is amongst the most difficult in the world to fight in, the people are resilient and in many cases, used to living in Spartan conditions. This is one of the many things being weighed right now, because short of deploying one of the largest bombing campaigns in history, nobody honestly believes that we could win a battle against North Korea with air power alone. This is what keeps me awake at night; most of the chatter that I'm hearing says that we will strike North Korea in the event of another nuclear test or 'significant provocation'. The military options on the table range all the way from small, surgical strikes to degrade the regime's missile capability all the way to a massive bombing campaign designed to completely cripple their fighting ability.

If it seems to be a lose-lose situations, that's because it really is. None of this takes into account what, if anything, China and Russia would do in response to an attack just across their borders.

EDIT: 4/24/2017:

There is some breaking news that is very relevant to option #3. The Entire Senate has been invited to the White House on Wednesday for a briefing on North Korea. If this realization alone wasn't frightening enough, there are 4 confirmed briefers:

1. Rex Tillerson - Secretary of State
2. Jim Mattis - Secretary of Defense
3. Dan Coats - Director of National Intelligence
4. General Dunford - Chairman of the Joint Chiefs'

I have a sneaking suspicion that the overarching goal of this briefing is to obtain an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF). This coincides perfectly with the arrival of the Carrier Strike Group (CSG) and North Korea's second major April Holiday, April 25, which in 2017 is the 85th anniversary of Military Foundation Day, and another frequent testing period for Pyongyang.

Developing Story... More to come...

Twitter Questions

Just a brief reminder that the new site ( angrystaffer.com ) should be fully live early next week, hoping for Monday! Had some good questio...