Tuesday, May 30, 2017

The Decline of American Exceptionalism

To be clear: I do not know for certain that Donald Trump is directly conspiring with Vladimir Putin and Russia -- the evidence is certainly there and compelling -- I suspect that we will be briefed on that fairly soon (hint). Reminder: To continue on with a very disturbing precedent,Trump's personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, today refused to answer House and Senate requests for cooperation, saying that, "they have yet to produce one single piece of credible evidence that would corroborate the Russia narrative." Cool story, Michael - you're still going to get subpoenaed, though.

For the purposes of this post, it doesn't matter if Trump is directly conspiring with Russia; his actions are rapidly advancing Putin's agenda, wittingly or not. At this point, it doesn't (or shouldn't) matter what your policies are; this man is doing damage to the fabric of our Republic. He hasn't yet been in office for 6 months and he's alienated all of our top allies, shifted the United States closer to dictators and totalitarians and insulted members of the oldest, most successful defense alliance in our history.

List of people and countries that Trump has alienated his first 4 months in office:

  1. Angela Merkel / Germany
  2. Justin Trudeau / Canada
  3. Malcom Turnbull / Australia
  4. Emmanuel Macron / France
  5. Enrique Pena Nieto / Mexico
List of people and countries that Trump has praised / not alienated:

  1. Vladimir Putin, Sergei Kislyak, Sergey Lavrov / Russia
  2. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi / Egypt
  3. Rodrigo Duterte / Philippines
  4. Recep Tayyip Erdogan / Turkey
If these lists look completely backwards to you, you are not alone. Merkel and Macron's recent comments are the most concerning to me.

Merkel: We can't rely on the US anymore -- I have experienced this in the last days, we Europeans should take destiny in our own hands. 

Stunning statement from the person that's increasingly being looked at as the leader of the free world. Merkel's open disdain for POTUS is obvious to anyone that's ever seen them in a room together, despite Spicer's characterization of 'unbelievable'.

POTUS response on twitter: We have a MASSIVE trade deficit with Germany, plus they pay FAR LESS than they should on NATO and military. Very bad for U.S. This will change

I feel that some clarification is needed at this point. Maybe POTUS will read it and learn something.

Ahem: NATO IS NOT A BANK ACCOUNT. There is no collective defense fund, only an agreement. NATO members are expected to contribute 2% of their GDP to their own military budget, in the event that article 5 is invoked. Full stop. It's a preparation measure. There are no bills, no invoices, nobody owes NATO money. Should they up their defense spending to meet the goal? Yes. Should we harangue them about it endlessly and make it seem like they're the broke uncle that owes us money from the family reunion 3 years ago? No.
 
(It's also worth noting that in a display of nonpartisanship that is rarely seen in the United States, even Angela Merkel's political opponents lined up to slam Trump for his rhetoric and his disrespect for their Chancellor.)

Macron: Donald Trump, the Turkish President or the Russian President see relationships in terms of balance of power. That doesn't bother me. I don't believe in diplomacy by public abuse, but in my bilateral dialogues I won't let anything pass.

I hate to use the same adjective, but this is also stunning from the brand new President of France, who also happened to HAMMER Vladimir Putin on his propaganda machine. In a joint press conference while standing 5 feet from him. Remember when we had a President that would call Russia out? Me too. When the new guy is already lumping you in with the dictators and authoritarians, you might be doing something wrong. 

Finally, on to Mexico and Canada. This one is pretty simple. The United States can't exist in a vacuum. Yes, we are the most powerful country in the world, but alienating our allies isn't the way to keep it that way. Particularly the ones that we share a continent with; it's red meat for his base to scream at the top of his lungs that Mexico and Canada are killing us on trade and treating us "very unfairly," but how are we going to feel about the bombast when Mexico gets tired of the nationalist rhetoric, cozies up to China and lets them build a military base on our Southern border? When you're the President of the United States, your words have consequences. Could NAFTA be renegotiated to make it better for everyone involved? Absolutely, I don't think anyone is disputing that. The problem is, when you're dealing with the biggest economies in the world, Twitter diplomacy and not-so-veiled threats aren't the way to begin these negotiations.

I can't think of a time in modern history where our standing in the world has been in more doubt. I'm not used to the United States being the laughingstock of the world, and I certainly don't like it.

Quick sidebar on today's ICBM defense to wrap this post up: Yes, we successfully intercepted a mock ICBM on course with the mainland U.S. with a GMD interceptor from Vandenberg AFB in Central California. This is great news, and a powerful addition to our layered missile defense program (much of which I covered in a previous blog post, The THAAD Misconception) but we also have to temper our expectations. This was an intercept of a single missile fired on a preplanned trajectory. while it is a significant feat, because this is by far the fastest missile that we have ever intercepted, it's clear that this test was a direct message to North Korea. All of our near-peer adversaries (read: Russia and China) that would potentially be launching missiles at us would use countermeasures and MIRVs, (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles) which basically means that each missile that is launched carries 3-14 independently targetable warheads, which would likely overwhelm any of our air defenses. North Korea doesn't possess this capability, and won't for some time. The MIRV info isn't meant to frighten anyone, you should absolutely take comfort in the fact that our missile defenses apparatus is formidable, but it's important to remember that this new test doesn't make us invincible.







 

5 comments:

  1. Thanks for this post. The USA has been a worldwide laughingstock for quite a while. I started traveling overseas in the mid-90s during the Clinton era and it all kind of went downhill from there. Was in London when the Lewinsky scandal broke, and saw it splashed all over the British tabloids while riding the Tube. I was in France, UK, and multiple points in Asia during George W. Bush administration and got publicly castigated for being American multiple times due to his policies.

    But I agree, what is happening now is beyond the pale. We have a Russian agent in the White House shredding the entire world order just because he has a gaping, bottomless hole in his sole that came about because his parents did not love him as a child.

    Sad.

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  2. I was still on the fence with regards to Trump and world politics for quite some time. Trump does come across as a buffoon at times, but only because the opposition has years more experience as to how to hide their complicity. The countries you list Trump has alienated, maybe with the exception of Mexico, all have leaders and governments that are at the forefront of globalism and pushing HARD the UN agendas of such. The real crimes are committed by the very people who publicly castigate countries with poor human rights and oppressive governments, while privately facilitate the sale of arms and uranium to the tuned of billions of dollars annually, and are very handsomely rewarded for their efforts.

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  3. Plus I think global politics is very well choreographed theatre and the world's public are the paying audience.

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  4. As far as Russiagate goes how does one ratify one's belief system when a high ranking Obama administration official facilitate the sale of uranium to a "foreign power threat"?

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