Twitter Questions!

Hey guys, just wanted to take the time to answer a few questions from last night's AMA that needed longer responses. Keep 'em coming. Not like I have anything better to do than work for no pay, anyway. 😉

"Do you see a shifting away from Trump in the GOP? Can they not see the damage he is doing? Do you have insight into what they are saying behind closed doors?"

This is a great question, and a topic that irritates me greatly. Almost without exception, the people who defend Trump in public slander him mercilessly behind closed-doors. It's hypocrisy on a scale that you probably won't find many places outside of DC. They all know he's an idiot. They all know he's bad for the GOP brand (and the country). There really aren't many people in Congress who actually like Trump, outside of Meadows, Gaetz, and a couple of outliers. It's a not-so-well kept secret that McConnell and Murdoch met to discuss their exit strategy. I would have expected to see more public deployment of it already, but I don't think it will be long; the shutdown is not playing well for the GOP with pollsters. It's almost like blaming the Democrats for a shutdown when you control the entire government was a bad idea. Weird, huh?

"How much danger is the Mueller investigation in really?"

Not much. I still think Trump will move on Mueller at some point -- and while Whitaker is around, there is *some* risk -- but it's not going to do any good. Mueller has farmed enough of his case out other jurisdictions (namely SDNY and EDVA) to prevent his work from stopping even if Trump had him fired tomorrow. With Democrat control of the House coming in 5 days, Trump kicked that particular can down the road until he ran out of road. The backlash would be immediate, and astronomical. The work is also entirely too far along to be stopped now. People who have known Mueller for years have said on the record that he would have put a Dead Man's Switch in place the moment Comey was fired. That's been well over a year. FBI agents also aren't going to stop investigating a crime that by now they all know took place even if for some reason Mueller is removed. This is speculation, but I would guess shortly after the new Congress is seated, Mueller starts dropping bombs again. I still maintain Trump will move to fire Mueller as soon as Jr., Jared, or Ivanka are indicted, but it's too late. 

"How has Mattis leaving changed things?"

Mattis' abrupt departure has been met with condemnation, shock, and outrage in the corridors of power. You probably noticed the anti-Mattis crowd try -- and fail miserably -- to establish a narrative that he was somehow bad for this administration. That was *never* going to fly. It shouldn't have worked with Comey, either, but he was such a polarizing figure that it left enough room for both sides of the issue to find a reason to be mad at him. Mattis, on the other hand, is universally respected and widely recognized as *the* preeminent military mind of this generation. His letter moved Congress' "oh shit" meter further to the right than almost anything else could have. Is it enough to act? I suppose we shall soon find out. 

"You haven't talked about North Korea in awhile. What are your current thought's about that hot spot?"

Those of you who have followed me for awhile know North Korea is one of my favorite things to talk about. I've avoided discussing it recently because you can only say "I told you so!!!!" so many times before you sound like a jackass. Kidding... kinda. But no, North Korea is a mess. Mattis leaving makes it even more of a mess, because nobody left who has Trump's ear knows anything about the Korean Peninsula. He wanted to attack North Korea during one of my previous North Korea spam-fests (around the time the three Carrier Strike Groups were in the area of operations) but Kelly, Mattis and McMaster talked him out of it. I know people hate hearing about the adults in the room, but I don't think *anyone* can honestly tell me you feel better about John Bolton and his ridiculous mustache advising Trump on military matters than you did Mattis, Kelly, and McMaster. We've avoided one almost-war with North Korea already during this administration, I don't really look forward to another. I'm not as excited about the lack of recent missile testing as the Trump sycophants on TV; it just tells me they've progressed beyond the stage of needing continuous tests to advance their program. They're essentially 100% on intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests. We can quibble over the reentry vehicles if we want, but the facts are their missiles worked way better than they should have, way faster than they should have, and they've done nothing to slow down research or production. Coupled with the fact that they've probably developed a working hydrogen bomb and are working feverishly on minimization, I'm afraid the North Korea problem is going to come to a head far sooner than any of us wish for it to. Unfortunately, there really are no good options left. If we were going to take their program by force before they developed the capability to hit us at home, that window is firmly closed. To be clear: we don't *know* with 100% certainty that they have the capability to marry a warhead to a missile and land it with precision inside the United States; but we do know they have the capability to at least reach the mainland with a missile, which doesn't leave us a whole lot of low-risk strategic options. Since Trump and Kim "fell in love" (puke) we've also given them a solid 6 months + to continue their work on minimization. The Trump administration's Korean Peninsula policy has given the United States exactly nothing, and given North Korea everything they could have possibly wanted: we no longer buzz their airspace with jets and bombers, we no longer participate in joint exercises with South Korea, and we've given them invaluable time to continue their research. 

What Is Going on With Turkey and the Kurds, Anyway?

"If Turkey is Fighting ISIS, and the Kurds are Fighting ISIS, why does Turkey Hate the Kurds?"

To begin to answer this question, it’s important to understand the factions in which we are discussing, and to know that the entire region is a convoluted mess, so this is not meant to be a complete history or an all-encompassing account of the current battlefield dynamics.

How The F$%# Does a Sitting POTUS Ruin Christmas?

Tonight might very be the most disgusted I've ever been by Donald Trump. I had no intention of taking time this evening to write this post -- or any other post for that matter -- until Trump opened his mouth again. I've previously said that for the first time in my children's lives, I don't even allow them to be in the room when the President of the United States is speaking. As sad as that is, this policy has been validated many times over the last two years, but perhaps never as much as tonight.

I tucked my still-believe-in-Santa-age children into bed, made sure everything was perfect for tomorrow morning, poured myself a drink, and opened Twitter to possibly crack a couple jokes before I went to bed myself. I should have skipped Twitter and just went to bed; all it made me want to do is pour myself another drink. For those of you that missed it, children call in to the White House Switchboard and speak to POTUS about the current location of Santa (according to the NORAD Tracker). Seems benign, right? With any other President, yes; Trump, being Trump, managed to f$%# it up spectacularly.

Direct quote from POTUS to a 7-year-old calling to ask him about Santa: Are you still a believer in Santa? Because at seven it's marginal, right?"

Seriously? What kind of shit-tier human do you have to be to manage to be * this* devoid of empathy, common decency, or just paternal instincts in general? Talking to children on the phone should not be a challenge if you're the President of the United States. Asking a child about Santa should not be difficult, particularly if you're the President of the United States who happens to lie about 35 times a day... on a slow day. The ONE TIME WE ACTUALLY NEED YOU TO STRETCH THE TRUTH -- or just STFU and pretend to be capable of human feelings -- you manage to completely bumblefuck it? This should quite literally be the EASIEST part of being President. I know I shouldn't be surprised by anything Trump does at this point, but this one completely threw me for a loop. There is something seriously wrong with any human who can make it to 72-years-old and not be enchanted by the magic of a young child's imagination.

Anyway, just wanted to rant for a minute; that's all I got. I've got a piece on Syria coming soon in response to a few questions about the tensions between Turkey and the Kurds. I would expect that to go live on Wednesday. 

I hope you all have a wonderful holiday, and that those of you with young children managed to keep them away from the President's best effort to ruin their innocence. 

Twitter Questions!

Sorry guys! I meant to get to these last night, but it didn't work out that way.

• What does the shutdown mean for ordinary Americans?

Probably not much, unless you're looking to get a FHA loan or you're a small business owner and need something from SBA. It means a great deal for the folks in Government, though:

Shrodinger's Caliphate

Is ISIS defeated? Are they alive? Nobody knows!

...oh, who am I kidding? Everyone not named Donald Trump (or one of his mindless minions) knows.

We are abandoning our SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) allies at a critical juncture: they are poised to take control of Hajin, the last ISIS-held territory in Syria, at the exact moment Erdogan is threatening to cross the border and attack the YPG (the Kurdish Force which constitutes most of the SDF). This would lead to massive destabilization east of the Euphrates, and the death of US-backed forces that we've promised to defend. This decision was made without coordination at any level of DOD, including SecDef Mattis, who was pissed -- and tendered his resignation in protest -- during a contentious Oval Office meeting this afternoon (12/20). Aside from Syrian civilians themselves, the Kurds have probably been the most-impacted by -- and the most-influential in -- the Syrian civil war. The Kurds, along with various Arab militias and coalition airpower, have driven ISIS out of territory after territory, including their de facto capital, Raqqa. Now, at the urging of Turkey in what seems to be an obvious quid pro quo, we're going to leave them to die.

This is an egregious betrayal. In concert with the removal of sanctions on Oleg Deripaska's companies (U Rusal, En+Group, and EuroSibEnergy), it's clearer than ever that POTUS is carrying Putin's water.

Quick reminder on Deripaska: Once the richest man in Russia, and a close Putin ally, the oligarch Deripaska is caught up in the Mueller probe due to his connections to Paul Manafort, including a $19,000,000 "investment."

If we withdraw from Syria -- and Afghanistan -- as planned, we are paving the way for an insurgent resurgence, and potentially another 9/11. Analysts look at threats from various organizations on kind of a sliding scale, called a threat spectrum, not to be confused with *the* Threat Matrix. Picture a straight line numbered from 0-100 for an example. If we're talking about ISIS, 0 (the left-hand side) would be "No Threat" -- 100 (far-right) would be "ISIS has weapons of mass destruction." On 9/11, Al Qaeda would have been at somewhere around number 90 on the spectrum. The Paris attacks would have been somewhere around 60. Lone wolves, while still deadly and a big threat, are somewhere around 25. The reason that we've never gotten to 90 or 100 again on any threat spectrum is because we've kept constant pressure on the organizations that seek to do us harm. When the leadership of these organizations are worried about their lives, they don't have the time or the resources to plan a 9/11 style attack on the mainland.

I go through all of this essentially to say one thing: this decision makes us less safe. If we continue with POTUS' current thought process of pulling out of Afghanistan too, it's going to be even worse.

When it comes to NatSec discussions, I try to keep them pretty basic just to help give everyone an idea of what's going on. If people are actually interested, I could definitely go more in-depth and probably rant around geopolitics (particularly in the Middle East) until you all want to jump (or push me?) off a cliff. Or maybe I could behave myself and keep it somewhere in between. My goal is to try and provide information without boring anyone to death, but I'm ultimately here for you guys, so please let me know how you'd like me to approach these discussions in the future!

Book Recommendations

I've had a couple people ask on Twitter if there was a list of all my book recommendations somewhere. There wasn't, but it's probably a good idea, seeing as I post a lot of updates (sorry, not sorry) and people probably miss quite a few of them in the spam. So, here are all of my favorite books that I've recommended over the last year on Twitter. I'll update this list as I add more.

Obligatory reminder: I might earn a small commission for items purchased through links. I don't disclose this to encourage you to buy anything, only to be transparent. December's donations will go exclusively to The Special Operations Warrior Foundation. They do fantastic work supporting the families of fallen and wounded Special Operations personnel, with a focus of sending children of fallen warriors to college.

Angry's Impeachment Prediction

Many of you have asked me which Senators I think will defect and vote for conviction after the House impeaches. Here's a list of my best guesses with the information available at this time:

Couple of notes before we start: this exercise assumes a few things: 

1. all Democrats will vote to convict. 

2. it will happen in the next (116th) Congress that starts on January 3rd, 2019, so I have not listed any retiring members here.

3. I am also listing both independents as YES votes, but that seems to be all but guaranteed. So we need 20 R's to vote for impeachment.

I still fully believe that as information continues to come out (we haven't even gotten to the really good stuff yet), we will see a mass-exodus from Trump in an attempt to save 2020. Far too little, way too late, but I expect for it to happen. I don't think Trump will actually be removed from Office via impeachment, but I do believe the public whip counts will scare the crap out of him and he'll end up resigning. At least if he resigns, he can do it on his own terms (ish) and spin it the way he wants... until he ends up in prison. 

You'll notice that I didn't put a vote next to Graham or Cruz. I ultimately believe we will end up with 70+ votes to convict in the final whip counts, but here are the first 20 that I believe will break the dam:

Individual-1 is Screwed -- and He Knows It

Despite the bloviating on Twitter, the frantic cries of “NO COLLUSION,” and whatever blithering bullshit his Fox News Fanclub is spewing, Donald Trump is a man who who knows his goose is cooked. Psychologists will tell you this is the most dangerous time for a narcissist; when they know they’re cornered, they tend to do stupid things. Trump *always* does stupid things, so I guess smart money would say we should all be expecting something monumentally dumb.

But seriously, he knows he’s done. He knew he was done before the Cohen and Manafort news dumps on Friday; why prepare a counter report (that’s not even a thing, btw) for an investigation that you expected to exonerate you? There are at least three major investigations that have entered the Oval Office, he’s been officially (in Court) tied to multiple felonies, and *all* of his tax returns are about to be fair game. All before we even think about the reports Mueller hasn’t released yet, look at obstruction of justice, or consider the fact that a Democrat majority is about to take control of the House, ready and able to exercise the oversight responsibility this House GOP so willingly abdicated in their desperate search for Hillary’s emails. There is no more Trump legislative agenda. Trump is no longer useful to the GOP in any way: after that midterm shellacking, he’s obviously not bringing any votes their way, the courts are already stacked in their favor, and Congress is going to be gridlocked for the next two years. What is the purpose of keeping a felonious conman around when he no longer provides any value? I don’t see one. If the GOP was smart, they’d get rid of Trump faster than he got rid of Dr. Ronny Jackson’s diet and exercise plan. 239? Snort.

If Trump was smart, he would realize that EDVA is going to kick him straight in the FUPA the second he leaves office, and begin negotiating for resignation and a pardon. Tomorrow. But he’s not, so he will continue to gaslight America. I fully expect the next few weeks to be completely bonkers. Trump will likely keep digging his heels in and winding up his multitude of mouth-breathers with verifiably false rhetoric. I think there’s a very real possibility of violence from Trump supporters as it becomes obvious his time in office is coming to an end. No, not another civil war or anything on a mass scale, but we’ve already seen how easily his base can be coaxed to action when it pleases Dear Leader.

To help verify much of what I’ve been saying over the past three weeks, here’s a brand-new WaPo headline from today: ‘Siege Warfare’: Republican Anxiety Spikes as Trump Faces Growing Legal and Political Perils

https://wapo.st/2G7T0zz

I’ve still got a Flynn piece that I’m working, too. I’m not thrilled with the idea of a former Lieutenant General, DIA Director, and National Security Advisor getting off Scott-Free (see what I did there?) for multiple felonies/treason, no matter the level of cooperation. I trust Mueller’s judgement, however, so rest assured that Flynn gave up some YUGE info.

There’s a book coming out soon that I can’t WAIT to read in which the author has promised some dirt on Flynn. Nada Bakos, a Hall of Fame analyst and targeting officer said on Twitter, “The Michael Flynn you are hearing about now is the same Flynn I had to interact with when I was at the CIA. People don't change. I share some of these stories in my new book.” You can find it here: https://amzn.to/2L3mhKp (Affiliate).

Keep the questions coming, either here or on Twitter! I still read all of my comments, and I'm doing my best to keep a list of questions people are asking so I can respond to all the ones that I'm able to. The AMAs are fun, but there's no way I can get to all thousand questions that I got last time, as much as I'd like to! 

Twitter Questions

Wanted to take the time to answer a few questions that needed longer responses and/or the ones I didn't get to on Twitter:

Does Melania Hate Donald? Not Not Love. Hate.

At first, I really thought she did; there were rumors of an pending divorce before he won the election, and her demeanor (not holding his hand, behind-the-back glares, etc.) seemed to all but confirm it. Now? I'm not so sure. Her public comments put her firmly in Trump's corner, and she's not doing much behind the scenes to make anyone think differently. I'm starting to think she knew exactly what she signed up for and she's fine with it - as long as the money keeps coming in.

Twitter Questions!

Since my last blog entry, we've had a blue tsunami (up to 40 House seats?! suck it, fat Nixon), a disastrously wrong SCOTUS prediction by yours truly, an illegitimate acting-AG nomination, and countless other news stories that I've probably forgotten by now. I just wanted to take a brief minute to finish answering some of the questions on Twitter from my AMA today. Apparently, the thread got too many comments and bugged out, so I can't see (or reply) to all of them anymore. I know, first world problems, right? Anyway, here we go with some of the ones I can still see:

• "If it comes down to it, will the Secret Service stand aside and allow federal Marshalls to remove Trump from the WH?"

Honestly, while I do expect Trump to go (figuratively) kicking and screaming from the WH, I don't envision a scenario in which he actually has to be drug out of the building, although that would be fantastic television. To answer the question? I don't know. I wouldn't expect to see a showdown with the Marshalls and the USSS, that's entirely too Tom Clancy. In the unlikely event that someone *was* coming to remove him from the grounds, it would be because he was no longer POTUS and they would no longer be tasked with protecting him.

• "Did Melania get decorating advice from a phlebotomist?"

Evidence points to yes.

• "How in the hell did he get other Republicans to be so obedient?"

This. This is the million dollar question. At this point, I can only assume that some of them are compromised. Many of you have seen me say that when Trump was first elected (think pre-CIA memorial wall speech... so like day 1) I was cautiously optimistic for a couple reasons. The Oval Office has a way of moderating people. Being POTUS is a sobering job. You literally see the transformation from campaign to governing take place in a matter of weeks with most people. I also thought that political norms (i.e. stay out of DOJ's business, 3 coequal branches of Government, etc.) would be enforced by the GOP. Being the majority and the opposition party for so long apparently either completely boofed the GOP's moral compass, or there's way more dirt on them than previously believed. I honestly don't know which, but that has been the most disappointing part of this presidency to me. Everyone always knew Trump was going to be a disaster, we just didn't expect the moderating voices to become sycophants in the process.

• "Is Kellyanne OK with what George is doing?"

I don't know for sure, but I've long suspected they have some kind of good cop/bad cop thing going on. I don't see how they possibly make it work otherwise. Trump *hates* George's commentary. It's delicious.

"How much longer will this hell last?"

Evidence points to Mueller's report being done soon. I expected it prior to midterms, but he's flipping folks at a higher rate than IHOP flips pancakes, so I suppose it was bound to take a little longer. I know people are trying to temper their expectations in regards to what the report will bring, but there's definitely something there. Look at how far we've come in a relatively short period of time. The FBI raided the home, office, and apartment of the personal lawyer of the President of the United States. Oh, and he flipped. A National Security Advisor flipped. A campaign manager flipped, and then continued lying to the Special Counsel -- what could possibly be *that* important to hide that you'd commit another felony while trying to negotiate your way out of the first several you were already charged with? A coffee boy is sleeping in jail away from his Red Sparrow tonight because he couldn't keep his drunken mouth shut, and then he thought he was smart enough to promulgate a "but the deep state" theory AFTER he agreed to cooperate. Sorry, Papa-dope, not happenin. Nobody but Mueller (well, and Trump) know exactly what Mueller is about to expose, but all available evidence (and behind-the-scenes chatter) points to it being YUGE. Remember the last time a son of a sitting POTUS told everyone he was going to be indicted soon? Me neither. This is far bigger than most people realize. Keep the faith.

Unfortunately, that's all of the questions I can still see on the thread. I'll try to schedule the next AMA at a more appropriate time; I know this one was kind of spontaneous! I'll check back with the thread tomorrow and see if I can add more answers. 

Why You HAVE to Vote in November

Stop me if you've heard this before:

This is the *most* important election you will ever vote in. I'm not a historian, but I don't believe there has ever been more on the line in the midterms:

- The fate of the Mueller investigation hangs in the balance. Trump has already alluded to firing Jeff Sessions right after the midterms. If we don't send a strong message that actions have consequences, and the Republicans retain control of Congress, they will be galvanized and even more brazen. Mueller is set to deliver his findings to Rosenstein soon. If Sessions is replaced before this happens, these findings could be given to the new AG, swept under the rug, and never revealed to the public (until they inevitably leak).

- SCOTUS. Ruth Bader Ginsburg is 85 years old. Stephen Breyer is 80 years old. Do we *really* want to give Trump/Pence and/or this GOP Congress a potential TWO more SCOTUS picks?

- Subpoena Power. Subpoena power rests with the majority. There have been countless bombshell stories that the current GOP Congress has completely disregarded in favor of Hillary's emails. Trump's tax returns, all the witnesses who weren't originally called to testify in the House and Senate probes, Trump's personal and business ties to Saudi Arabia, Russia, etc. all become available if we get out and vote next month.

- Entitlements. Their tax bill raised the deficit like everyone with a brain or a calculator knew it would, so now the GOP is doing what they always do: going after Social Security and Medicaid. They want to take the money that you've been putting in all your lives so their rich friends don't lose their tax breaks.

- Rule of Law. If you've watched the Khashoggi coverage, you should be under no illusions what this means. We know Trump doesn't care about journalists, but watching him try to differentiate between a Green Card holder and an American citizen is absolutely disgusting. Khashoggi lived in Virginia. He was lured to a Consulate building and killed by a 15 man hit squad on orders of the Saudi government. We know this to be fact. Trump knows this to be fact. He doesn't care. Honestly, he probably wishes he could do the same to journalists that annoy him. He has consistently sided with despots and murderers over the interest of the United States or our alliances.

Trump:

"Putin is probably involved in poisonings, but it's not in our country"

"Well, for starters, he (Khashoggi) wasn't an American citizen"

This position is not consistent with the values of any decent person, or country. If it feels like America First is turning into "America Alone," this is by design. No country can survive and thrive in today's geopolitical climate without allies. Trump's trade wars, constant rebukes of allies, and his predilection for murderous dictators are all a danger to global stability. There could hardly be a worse time to lose General Mattis from DoD, but Trump appears to be poised to do just that. His "Mattis is sort of a Democrat" comment was a trial balloon. To be clear, Mattis has no intention of stepping down, but he is losing influence to the Bolton/Pompeo faction of the administrations, and Trump definitely wants someone more hawkish at the Pentagon.

Elections have consequences. Nothing highlights the importance of voting more than what the country has been through in the last two years, and we haven't even seen the economic bubble burst (yet). I implore you all to let this be a very painful lesson learned, and do your absolute best to make certain that it never happens again. Vote in November. Bring friends with you.

Boys Will Be Boys? Not Anymore.

If the current news cycle is any indication of what “boys will be boys” means, it turns out that I was a *much* better teenager than I previously thought. I had a decent-sized circle of close friends — there were around 10 of us that hung out several times a week on a regular week, and closer to nightly during the summer. The boy:girl ratio was generally pretty even, but even when it was just “the guys,” there was a noticeable lack of raging misogyny, thoughts of drugging women to get laid, and sexual assault planning. We did dumb things like toilet-paper friend’s homes, annoy neighbors with loud music late at night, and on one occasion it’s possible one of us came home with a stop sign. The girls were our friends. Some of us dated, many of us didn’t. To a man, we went out of our way to protect them from people like Brett Kavanaugh has been described. We partied — sometimes we drank too much — but I can unequivocally say that if *any* of the behavior described as routine at Georgetown Prep took place at one of our parties, we would have kicked the shit out of the perpetrator(s). None of us were violent people, but this behavior is so far beyond the pale that it’s difficult for me to understand how anyone can justify this.

The more endemic problem is not that the Brett Kavanaughs of the world exist, but that they’re frequently the ones that find themselves in positions of power. You need look no further than the United States Senate for confirmation of this. The Good Ole Boys Club is alive and well, and they’re fiercely protective of their own. This is perhaps most evidenced by the majority’s absolute refusal to to even consider the allegations into Kavanaugh’s behavior — or let the FBI investigation play out — before many of their votes were secured. 

We still don’t know how Collins, Flake, and Murkowski will vote, but the public comments from the former two aren’t encouraging. My Senate contacts are still telling me that Flake and Collins are leaning no, but at this point, I’m not sure that’s worth believing. I would have never believed that an FBI investigation would be allowed into allegations of sexual assault without interviewing either of the two primary participants, but here we are. 

To be clear: I don’t care if Kavanaugh was a raging alcohol in high school and college. That behavior is not inherently disqualifying from the Supreme Court. The rest absolutely is: The blatant partisanship shown in his public hearings, the mysterious debt that nobody can seem to explain, the numerous allegations of sexual assault, and the at least six counts of perjury before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Any one of these things would have been enough to derail a candidate in normal times.

Many of you have asked what I think will happen this morning. I am almost certain that the cloture vote will succeed, and I am less confident now than I was that the confirmation vote will be sunk, but I haven’t completely given up hope. The two things that are certain to me right now?

1. Republicans claim to be energized by this Kavanaugh process? They’ve got NOTHING on the women voters if he’s confirmed. The blue wave is going to turn into a blue tsunami, and the allegations against Kavanaugh aren’t going to stop. The people who weren’t allowed to speak to the FBI will come forward. The GOP would be far better served by nominating different conservative Judge, but the desire unfettered Presidential power seems to have eclipsed all common sense. 

2. This investigation turned out to be a total joke. When more comes out about this, people are going to be completely outraged. The FBI requested to personally interview Kavanaugh because he wasn't on the approved list, and they were DENIED by the White House -- even after the so-called "expansion" of their authority in this case, Kavanaugh remained on the "off-limits" list. 

If Kavanaugh is confirmed or if Flake holds his ground and the vote falls short, my reminder is the same: there is *nothing* more important than voting in November. Bring a friend with you. 

Why My Wife Didn't Report

I am writing this entry, but this story has been mostly dictated to me by my wife. She's been watching the Kavanaugh coverage as closely as anyone, and like many, she hopes that telling her story will help someone else. 

The first time my wife was assaulted, she was 7. Her parents were recently divorced and she lived with her mother. Her assailant was her "step-father." She moved a lot as a young child. She doesn't remember the name of the school she went to in Kindergarten, or her first grade teacher, but she does remember *every* second of every time she was assaulted. Over the course of a year, her mother's boyfriend assaulted her five times. I'll spare you the details, but it started off "mild" if you want to call it that, and gradually escalated. The final time he assaulted her, he went too far and she began to cry. First, he got mad. He told her, "You never told me to stop. I thought this is what you wanted." Even at 8 years old, my wife was being conditioned to think that she wasn't a victim, that it was somehow her fault because she didn't ask him not to. Then he cried. He told her that he loved her and would never do anything to hurt her. Then he got mad again, and told her that if she ever told anyone he would take her mother away from her. So she didn't tell anyone for a long time. When she was in 6th grade, she finally found someone that she was comfortable confiding in: her pastor. This pastor looked into her 11-12 year old face and told her that she was going to hell because she lost her virginity before marriage. She's not real interested in going to church even to this day -- wonder why? 

Without going into too many details, I met my wife sometime between the end of elementary school and the middle of high school. After we had been friends (and dated) for around a year, she confided in me that she was assaulted as a child. It's been a long time since the day she told me, but it's a day that I'll never forget. By this point, her assailant was long out of the picture; her mother had eventually realized that he was a slime-ball and moved on. I've never met him, which is probably for the best; I would likely be sitting in a jail somewhere rather than writing this blog post. 

Again, being purposefully vague: we had an amicable split-up somewhere around the end of high school and rekindled our friendship (and relationship) sometime in college. She was not a partier, but she had friends that were. On one occasion shortly before we found each other again, she went with a friend to a party at a local college. Someone slipped something into her drink and she was assaulted again that night. She remembers bits and pieces of it, but she has absolutely no idea who her attacker was. This time, she didn't report because her memory was fuzzy, she was drinking underage, and she didn't think she could definitively ID anyone, anyway. 

My wife was struck, because in many cases, her life experiences have left her in much the same position as Dr. Ford. We don't have two front doors, but she is extremely claustrophobic, and when we were shopping for our house we had to find one with an open-floorplan and without any narrow hallways. She is also very successful in her chosen field, and while she doesn't let her experiences define her, she does deal with some social anxiety (mostly around men) and mild-depression problems to this day.

Dr. Ford's testimony caused her the same feelings that it caused many survivors: she's spent the last two days remembering. She doesn't regret watching, but she feels the same profound sadness that I do that many of the men in those hearings couldn't give a shit less about Dr. Ford's story. She also made the comment to me that Kavanaugh's outburst in his opening statement reminded her almost *exactly* of her first assaulter. Less than 5 minutes into his comments, I got a text from her that simply read, "He's guilty. Watch the anger, and wait for the tears." Sure enough, she was right. The uncontrollable sobs started, but I'm not sure I ever saw any tears.

My wife knows that her story isn't unique; unfortunately, it's one that is told far too often. She is furious at all of the "If it happened, why didn't she say anything?" coverage that's all over social media. Aside from me, her pastor, and a couple close friends, my wife has never told anyone about her experiences. Her mother doesn't know to this day that a man she brought into her home spent the better part of a year assaulting her daughter. That's another reason she never reported; she knew it would break her mother's heart.

As a final message to survivors: we are so sorry for what you've been through. Just know, we believe you, we're here if you need to talk, and this assault does not define you. 

Kavanaugh Fox Transcript (Full Text)

MARTHA MACCALLUM: Thank you both for sitting down with me today. What made you decide to speak out before the hearing on Thursday? Judge Kavanaugh?

KAVANAUGH: I am looking for a fair process, a process where I can defend my integrity and clear my name. And all I’m asking for is fairness and that I’d be heard in this process.

MACCALLUM: Ashley, what has this been like for you the past couple of weeks? I know you’ve had death threats and all kinds of things coming your way. What – how does that feel?

ASHLEY ESTES KAVANAUGH: This process is incredibly difficult. It’s harder than we imagined, and we imagined it might be hard. But at the end of the day, our faith is strong and we know that we’re on the right path. And we’re just going to stick to it, so.

MACCALLUM: So let me – let’s get in to some of these allegations, because you’ve responded to them in statements, but you haven’t had a chance to respond them – to them in a fuller way.

And Christine Ford is expected to testify on Thursday, that you at a party in high school pinned her to a bed, held your hand over her mouth. She said she was afraid that she could inadvertently (ph) be killed at that moment.

She said that you tried to take off her clothes, and she believes that you would’ve raped her if Mark Judge hadn’t climbed on top and everyone tumbled to the floor. And then she had an opportunity to get away.

Now, she doesn’t remember the date and she doesn’t remember the place. But what she does remember that I just detailed, is very specific.

And other assault victims say that they’ve had similar memories where they remembered exactly what happened but they didn’t necessarily remember the events surrounding it. You have categorically denied that this happened. Did anything happen?

KAVANAUGH: No. I had never sexually assaulted anyone, not in high school, not ever. I’ve always treated women with dignity and respect.

Listen to the people who’ve known me best through my whole life, the women who have known me since high school, the 65 who overnight signed a letter from high school saying I always treated them with dignity and respect—

Why I Resist

“I don’t think we should think of norms as something that are less important than our laws — you know, the norms are really the fabric that holds the whole democracy together — without (norms) democracy starts to fall apart.”

- Sally Yates

I came across this Sally Yates quote the other day, and it really made me think. I’ve preached about the degradation of norms being the most dangerous precedent set by this POTUS since I started my Twitter account, and that is why I resist:

Kava-NOPE!

Now that skeletons are falling out of his closest faster than money flew out the door of Trump Casino, I'm going to offer my prediction that tomorrow will be a *really* bad day for the Kavanaugh nomination. I've spoken with a couple GOP Senate staffers this evening, and all indication is that they knew this story was coming and were trying to get out ahead of it/push the nomination through before it broke. There's also credible rumor of more to come. Sorry 'bout your luck, GOP. At this point, they're still hesitant to pull the nomination because they think it's going to be catastrophic for them in the midterms if they don't fill this seat. More catastrophic than elevating a potential serial-predator to the bench, you might ask? Well, I suppose that's for the common folk to figure out. Ultimately, I believe Kavanaugh will withdraw his name from consideration, if for no reason other than to try and make this shitstorm go away.