Saturday, December 29, 2018

Twitter Questions!

Hey guys, just wanted to take the time to answer a few questions from last night's AMA that needed longer responses. Keep 'em coming. Not like I have anything better to do than work for no pay, anyway. 😉

"Do you see a shifting away from Trump in the GOP? Can they not see the damage he is doing? Do you have insight into what they are saying behind closed doors?"

This is a great question, and a topic that irritates me greatly. Almost without exception, the people who defend Trump in public slander him mercilessly behind closed-doors. It's hypocrisy on a scale that you probably won't find many places outside of DC. They all know he's an idiot. They all know he's bad for the GOP brand (and the country). There really aren't many people in Congress who actually like Trump, outside of Meadows, Gaetz, and a couple of outliers. It's a not-so-well kept secret that McConnell and Murdoch met to discuss their exit strategy. I would have expected to see more public deployment of it already, but I don't think it will be long; the shutdown is not playing well for the GOP with pollsters. It's almost like blaming the Democrats for a shutdown when you control the entire government was a bad idea. Weird, huh?



"How much danger is the Mueller investigation in really?"

Not much. I still think Trump will move on Mueller at some point -- and while Whitaker is around, there is *some* risk -- but it's not going to do any good. Mueller has farmed enough of his case out other jurisdictions (namely SDNY and EDVA) to prevent his work from stopping even if Trump had him fired tomorrow. With Democrat control of the House coming in 5 days, Trump kicked that particular can down the road until he ran out of road. The backlash would be immediate, and astronomical. The work is also entirely too far along to be stopped now. People who have known Mueller for years have said on the record that he would have put a Dead Man's Switch in place the moment Comey was fired. That's been well over a year. FBI agents also aren't going to stop investigating a crime that by now they all know took place even if for some reason Mueller is removed. This is speculation, but I would guess shortly after the new Congress is seated, Mueller starts dropping bombs again. I still maintain Trump will move to fire Mueller as soon as Jr., Jared, or Ivanka are indicted, but it's too late. 

"How has Mattis leaving changed things?"

Mattis' abrupt departure has been met with condemnation, shock, and outrage in the corridors of power. You probably noticed the anti-Mattis crowd try -- and fail miserably -- to establish a narrative that he was somehow bad for this administration. That was *never* going to fly. It shouldn't have worked with Comey, either, but he was such a polarizing figure that it left enough room for both sides of the issue to find a reason to be mad at him. Mattis, on the other hand, is universally respected and widely recognized as *the* preeminent military mind of this generation. His letter moved Congress' "oh shit" meter further to the right than almost anything else could have. Is it enough to act? I suppose we shall soon find out. 

"You haven't talked about North Korea in awhile. What are your current thought's about that hot spot?"

Those of you who have followed me for awhile know North Korea is one of my favorite things to talk about. I've avoided discussing it recently because you can only say "I told you so!!!!" so many times before you sound like a jackass. Kidding... kinda. But no, North Korea is a mess. Mattis leaving makes it even more of a mess, because nobody left who has Trump's ear knows anything about the Korean Peninsula. He wanted to attack North Korea during one of my previous North Korea spam-fests (around the time the three Carrier Strike Groups were in the area of operations) but Kelly, Mattis and McMaster talked him out of it. I know people hate hearing about the adults in the room, but I don't think *anyone* can honestly tell me you feel better about John Bolton and his ridiculous mustache advising Trump on military matters than you did Mattis, Kelly, and McMaster. We've avoided one almost-war with North Korea already during this administration, I don't really look forward to another. I'm not as excited about the lack of recent missile testing as the Trump sycophants on TV; it just tells me they've progressed beyond the stage of needing continuous tests to advance their program. They're essentially 100% on intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests. We can quibble over the reentry vehicles if we want, but the facts are their missiles worked way better than they should have, way faster than they should have, and they've done nothing to slow down research or production. Coupled with the fact that they've probably developed a working hydrogen bomb and are working feverishly on minimization, I'm afraid the North Korea problem is going to come to a head far sooner than any of us wish for it to. Unfortunately, there really are no good options left. If we were going to take their program by force before they developed the capability to hit us at home, that window is firmly closed. To be clear: we don't *know* with 100% certainty that they have the capability to marry a warhead to a missile and land it with precision inside the United States; but we do know they have the capability to at least reach the mainland with a missile, which doesn't leave us a whole lot of low-risk strategic options. Since Trump and Kim "fell in love" (puke) we've also given them a solid 6 months + to continue their work on minimization. The Trump administration's Korean Peninsula policy has given the United States exactly nothing, and given North Korea everything they could have possibly wanted: we no longer buzz their airspace with jets and bombers, we no longer participate in joint exercises with South Korea, and we've given them invaluable time to continue their research. 

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

What Is Going on With Turkey and the Kurds, Anyway?

"If Turkey is Fighting ISIS, and the Kurds are Fighting ISIS, why does Turkey Hate the Kurds?"

To begin to answer this question, it’s important to understand the factions in which we are discussing, and to know that the entire region is a convoluted mess, so this is not meant to be a complete history or an all-encompassing account of the current battlefield dynamics.





Monday, December 24, 2018

How The F$%# Does a Sitting POTUS Ruin Christmas?

Tonight might very be the most disgusted I've ever been by Donald Trump. I had no intention of taking time this evening to write this post -- or any other post for that matter -- until Trump opened his mouth again. I've previously said that for the first time in my children's lives, I don't even allow them to be in the room when the President of the United States is speaking. As sad as that is, this policy has been validated many times over the last two years, but perhaps never as much as tonight.

I tucked my still-believe-in-Santa-age children into bed, made sure everything was perfect for tomorrow morning, poured myself a drink, and opened Twitter to possibly crack a couple jokes before I went to bed myself. I should have skipped Twitter and just went to bed; all it made me want to do is pour myself another drink. For those of you that missed it, children call in to the White House Switchboard and speak to POTUS about the current location of Santa (according to the NORAD Tracker). Seems benign, right? With any other President, yes; Trump, being Trump, managed to f$%# it up spectacularly.

Direct quote from POTUS to a 7-year-old calling to ask him about Santa: Are you still a believer in Santa? Because at seven it's marginal, right?"

Seriously? What kind of shit-tier human do you have to be to manage to be * this* devoid of empathy, common decency, or just paternal instincts in general? Talking to children on the phone should not be a challenge if you're the President of the United States. Asking a child about Santa should not be difficult, particularly if you're the President of the United States who happens to lie about 35 times a day... on a slow day. The ONE TIME WE ACTUALLY NEED YOU TO STRETCH THE TRUTH -- or just STFU and pretend to be capable of human feelings -- you manage to completely bumblefuck it? This should quite literally be the EASIEST part of being President. I know I shouldn't be surprised by anything Trump does at this point, but this one completely threw me for a loop. There is something seriously wrong with any human who can make it to 72-years-old and not be enchanted by the magic of a young child's imagination.

Anyway, just wanted to rant for a minute; that's all I got. I've got a piece on Syria coming soon in response to a few questions about the tensions between Turkey and the Kurds. I would expect that to go live on Wednesday. 

I hope you all have a wonderful holiday, and that those of you with young children managed to keep them away from the President's best effort to ruin their innocence. 

Saturday, December 22, 2018

Twitter Questions!

Sorry guys! I meant to get to these last night, but it didn't work out that way.

  • What does the shutdown mean for ordinary Americans?

Probably not much, unless you're looking to get a FHA loan or you're a small business owner and need something from SBA. It means a great deal for the folks in Government, though:

Thursday, December 20, 2018

Shrodinger's Caliphate

Is ISIS defeated? Are they alive? Nobody knows!

...oh, who am I kidding? Everyone not named Donald Trump (or one of his mindless minions) knows.

We are abandoning our SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) allies at a critical juncture: they are poised to take control of Hajin, the last ISIS-held territory in Syria, at the exact moment Erdogan is threatening to cross the border and attack the YPG (the Kurdish Force which constitutes most of the SDF). This would lead to massive destabilization east of the Euphrates, and the death of US-backed forces that we've promised to defend. This decision was made without coordination at any level of DOD, including SecDef Mattis, who was pissed -- and tendered his resignation in protest -- during a contentious Oval Office meeting this afternoon (12/20). Aside from Syrian civilians themselves, the Kurds have probably been the most-impacted by -- and the most-influential in -- the Syrian civil war. The Kurds, along with various Arab militias and coalition airpower, have driven ISIS out of territory after territory, including their de facto capital, Raqqa. Now, at the urging of Turkey in what seems to be an obvious quid pro quo, we're going to leave them to die.

This is an egregious betrayal. In concert with the removal of sanctions on Oleg Deripaska's companies (U Rusal, En+Group, and EuroSibEnergy), it's clearer than ever that POTUS is carrying Putin's water.

Quick reminder on Deripaska: Once the richest man in Russia, and a close Putin ally, the oligarch Deripaska is caught up in the Mueller probe due to his connections to Paul Manafort, including a $19,000,000 "investment."

If we withdraw from Syria -- and Afghanistan -- as planned, we are paving the way for an insurgent resurgence, and potentially another 9/11. Analysts look at threats from various organizations on kind of a sliding scale, called a threat spectrum, not to be confused with *the* Threat Matrix. Picture a straight line numbered from 0-100 for an example. If we're talking about ISIS, 0 (the left-hand side) would be "No Threat" -- 100 (far-right) would be "ISIS has weapons of mass destruction." On 9/11, Al Qaeda would have been at somewhere around number 90 on the spectrum. The Paris attacks would have been somewhere around 60. Lone wolves, while still deadly and a big threat, are somewhere around 25. The reason that we've never gotten to 90 or 100 again on any threat spectrum is because we've kept constant pressure on the organizations that seek to do us harm. When the leadership of these organizations are worried about their lives, they don't have the time or the resources to plan a 9/11 style attack on the mainland.

I go through all of this essentially to say one thing: this decision makes us less safe. If we continue with POTUS' current thought process of pulling out of Afghanistan too, it's going to be even worse.

When it comes to NatSec discussions, I try to keep them pretty basic just to help give everyone an idea of what's going on. If people are actually interested, I could definitely go more in-depth and probably rant around geopolitics (particularly in the Middle East) until you all want to jump (or push me?) off a cliff. Or maybe I could behave myself and keep it somewhere in between. My goal is to try and provide information without boring anyone to death, but I'm ultimately here for you guys, so please let me know how you'd like me to approach these discussions in the future!

Sunday, December 16, 2018

Book Recommendations

I've had a couple people ask on Twitter if there was a list of all my book recommendations somewhere. There wasn't, but it's probably a good idea, seeing as I post a lot of updates (sorry, not sorry) and people probably miss quite a few of them in the spam. So, here are all of my favorite books that I've recommended over the last year on Twitter. I'll update this list as I add more.

Obligatory reminder: I might earn a small commission for items purchased through links. I don't disclose this to encourage you to buy anything, only to be transparent. December's donations will go exclusively to The Special Operations Warrior Foundation. They do fantastic work supporting the families of fallen and wounded Special Operations personnel, with a focus of sending children of fallen warriors to college.

Friday, December 14, 2018

Angry's Impeachment Prediction

Many of you have asked me which Senators I think will defect and vote for conviction after the House impeaches. Here's a list of my best guesses with the information available at this time:

Couple of notes before we start: this exercise assumes a few things: 

1. all Democrats will vote to convict. 
2. it will happen in the next (116th) Congress that starts on January 3rd, 2019, so I have not listed any retiring members here.
3. I am also listing both independents as YES votes, but that seems to be all but guaranteed. So we need 20 R's to vote for impeachment.

I still fully believe that as information continues to come out (we haven't even gotten to the really good stuff yet), we will see a mass-exodus from Trump in an attempt to save 2020. Far too little, way too late, but I expect for it to happen. I don't think Trump will actually be removed from Office via impeachment, but I do believe the public whip counts will scare the crap out of him and he'll end up resigning. At least if he resigns, he can do it on his own terms (ish) and spin it the way he wants... until he ends up in prison. 

You'll notice that I didn't put a vote next to Graham or Cruz. I ultimately believe we will end up with 70+ votes to convict in the final whip counts, but here are the first 20 that I believe will break the dam:

Saturday, December 8, 2018

Individual-1 is Screwed -- and He Knows It

Despite the bloviating on Twitter, the frantic cries of “NO COLLUSION,” and whatever blithering bullshit his Fox News Fanclub is spewing, Donald Trump is a man who who knows his goose is cooked. Psychologists will tell you this is the most dangerous time for a narcissist; when they know they’re cornered, they tend to do stupid things. Trump *always* does stupid things, so I guess smart money would say we should all be expecting something monumentally dumb.


But seriously, he knows he’s done. He knew he was done before the Cohen and Manafort news dumps on Friday; why prepare a counter report (that’s not even a thing, btw) for an investigation that you expected to exonerate you? There are at least three major investigations that have entered the Oval Office, he’s been officially (in Court) tied to multiple felonies, and *all* of his tax returns are about to be fair game. All before we even think about the reports Mueller hasn’t released yet, look at obstruction of justice, or consider the fact that a Democrat majority is about to take control of the House, ready and able to exercise the oversight responsibility this House GOP so willingly abdicated in their desperate search for Hillary’s emails. There is no more Trump legislative agenda. Trump is no longer useful to the GOP in any way: after that midterm shellacking, he’s obviously not bringing any votes their way, the courts are already stacked in their favor, and Congress is going to be gridlocked for the next two years. What is the purpose of keeping a felonious conman around when he no longer provides any value? I don’t see one. If the GOP was smart, they’d get rid of Trump faster than he got rid of Dr. Ronny Jackson’s diet and exercise plan. 239? Snort.


If Trump was smart, he would realize that EDVA is going to kick him straight in the FUPA the second he leaves office, and begin negotiating for resignation and a pardon. Tomorrow. But he’s not, so he will continue to gaslight America. I fully expect the next few weeks to be completely bonkers. Trump will likely keep digging his heels in and winding up his multitude of mouth-breathers with verifiably false rhetoric. I think there’s a very real possibility of violence from Trump supporters as it becomes obvious his time in office is coming to an end. No, not another civil war or anything on a mass scale, but we’ve already seen how easily his base can be coaxed to action when it pleases Dear Leader.


To help verify much of what I’ve been saying over the past three weeks, here’s a brand-new WaPo headline from today: ‘Siege Warfare’: Republican Anxiety Spikes as Trump Faces Growing Legal and Political Perils





I’ve still got a Flynn piece that I’m working, too. I’m not thrilled with the idea of a former Lieutenant General, DIA Director, and National Security Advisor getting off Scott-Free (see what I did there?) for multiple felonies/treason, no matter the level of cooperation. I trust Mueller’s judgement, however, so rest assured that Flynn gave up some YUGE info.


There’s a book coming out soon that I can’t WAIT to read in which the author has promised some dirt on Flynn. Nada Bakos, a Hall of Fame analyst and targeting officer said on Twitter, “The Michael Flynn you are hearing about now is the same Flynn I had to interact with when I was at the CIA. People don't change. I share some of these stories in my new book.” You can find it here: https://amzn.to/2L3mhKp (Affiliate).

Keep the questions coming, either here or on Twitter! I still read all of my comments, and I'm doing my best to keep a list of questions people are asking so I can respond to all the ones that I'm able to. The AMAs are fun, but there's no way I can get to all thousand questions that I got last time, as much as I'd like to! 

Friday, December 7, 2018

Twitter Questions

Wanted to take the time to answer a few questions that needed longer responses and/or the ones I didn't get to on Twitter:

Does Melania Hate Donald? Not Not Love. Hate.

At first, I really thought she did; there were rumors of an pending divorce before he won the election, and her demeanor (not holding his hand, behind-the-back glares, etc.) seemed to all but confirm it. Now? I'm not so sure. Her public comments put her firmly in Trump's corner, and she's not doing much behind the scenes to make anyone think differently. I'm starting to think she knew exactly what she signed up for and she's fine with it - as long as the money keeps coming in.

Twitter Questions

Just a brief reminder that the new site ( angrystaffer.com ) should be fully live early next week, hoping for Monday! Had some good questio...