The North Korea Dilemma

Pause for a moment and think back to all of the cruelest and most violent people in history: Attila the Hun, Genghis Khan, Ivan IV, Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, Napoleon Bonaparte, etc. What do all of these people have in common?

None of them had the ability to kill hundreds of thousands of people with a single weapon.

This is why a sophisticated nuclear arsenal in North Korea is an untenable situation for the rest of the world. The prospect of North Korea possessing vast stockpiles of chemical weapons is daunting enough, but a modernized nuclear arsenal is frightening on a whole new level. Think of the unhinged dictator that executes his own top advisors and generals (many of whom are family) on a whim possessing the ability to launch a weapon that could change the course of history.

Nuclear weapons are not a responsibility that should ever be taken lightly -- the launch / no launch decision-window isn't weeks, days, or even hours -- it's minutes. In some cases, research suggests that the person in control of "the button" will have to make that vital decision in as little as 5 minutes.

We know that North Korea has tested it's first high-thrust rocket engine, which many analyst say could be a massive leap forward in the two-stage process required to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Fortunately, they seem to be having issues actually launching some of their missiles, as highlighted by the most recent failed tests. Hitting targets across the globe with any degree of accuracy is another issue that will likely take the hermit regime some time to perfect. This still begs the question: how do we deny them the opportunity to perfect this technique? I think most reasonable people in the world agree that North Korea armed with ICBMs would be a global threat. There are few options left:

1. China:  China stepping in and really putting pressure on Kim and sanctions seem to be the preferred course of action at the moment. China has already refused all coal imports from North Korea for the remainder of the year, which by all accounts should be a significant hit to their economy. The issue? North Korea doesn't seem to care. They've launched two rounds of missiles since China announced the import ban. Could it be that Beijing's attack dog is all the way off the leash?

2. Sanctions. Preferred option number two and generally concurrent with option one, The United States is reportedly preparing another sweeping sanction package that will further cripple North Korea's economy, where 2 out of 5 people are already considered undernourished. The issue? North Korea doesn't care. They make some money off of the black market weapons trade, and nobody at the top is feeling the pain. What extravagance is left in the isolated country rests squarely in the hands of the Kim regime.

3. The Military Option. Nobody's favorite plan, but it's quickly appearing to be the only feasible one remaining. If North Korea doesn't care what China says, is unbothered by what should be crippling sanctions, and continues to fire off missiles at a record pace, what else can be done?  Not much. We know that our military planners have a pre-emptive package that would be ready to roll out at a moments notice. Their air defenses are no match for our planes. Their troops outnumber ours several to one, but they are underequipped, under trained and probably at this point, under-fed. We could wipe out much of North Korea's nuclear capability in a single bombing run, but could we do it quickly enough that they would be unable to launch a nuclear counterattack? Nobody knows for sure. It's common knowledge that we have several layers of missile defense on the Korean peninsula and in the surrounding oceans. Could we knock down any missiles they were able to fire during our opening salvo? Probably. Even barring the launch of a nuclear weapon, North Korea still has a considerable amount of conventional weaponry, including artillery, aimed directly at South Korea. Several tunnels have been found and destroyed leading from North Korea under the DMZ, but have they found them all? Nobody expects Kim Jong Un to allow his troops to sit idly by while we destroy his missile program and his air defenses. South Korea could very reasonably face an all out conventional counterattack. With U.S. assets (ships, planes, soldiers, artillery, etc.) in the area, the counterattack could likely be repelled fairly quickly, but that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be costly. Hundreds to thousands of soldiers and civilians in South Korea could potentially die in the battle, not to mention the civilians that would die in the opening salvo on the North Korean side of the DMZ.

Ground war in Asia has a reputation for being absolutely devastating; the terrain is amongst the most difficult in the world to fight in, the people are resilient and in many cases, used to living in Spartan conditions. This is one of the many things being weighed right now, because short of deploying one of the largest bombing campaigns in history, nobody honestly believes that we could win a battle against North Korea with air power alone. This is what keeps me awake at night; most of the chatter that I'm hearing says that we will strike North Korea in the event of another nuclear test or 'significant provocation'. The military options on the table range all the way from small, surgical strikes to degrade the regime's missile capability all the way to a massive bombing campaign designed to completely cripple their fighting ability.

If it seems to be a lose-lose situations, that's because it really is. None of this takes into account what, if anything, China and Russia would do in response to an attack just across their borders.

EDIT: 4/24/2017:

There is some breaking news that is very relevant to option #3. The Entire Senate has been invited to the White House on Wednesday for a briefing on North Korea. If this realization alone wasn't frightening enough, there are 4 confirmed briefers:

1. Rex Tillerson - Secretary of State
2. Jim Mattis - Secretary of Defense
3. Dan Coats - Director of National Intelligence
4. General Dunford - Chairman of the Joint Chiefs'

I have a sneaking suspicion that the overarching goal of this briefing is to obtain an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF). This coincides perfectly with the arrival of the Carrier Strike Group (CSG) and North Korea's second major April Holiday, April 25, which in 2017 is the 85th anniversary of Military Foundation Day, and another frequent testing period for Pyongyang.

Developing Story... More to come...